The Oligopoly and the LCS

It looks like my playoff predictions have been busted pretty badly. But no matter. I can't predict when longstanding patterns will finally be broken. In this case, it was the pattern of the Cardinals and Giants alternating NL pennants. That ended this year, which meant that the "100-Win Curse" wasn't destined to fell St. Louis at the hands of the AL's only Oligopoly team.

There are now four teams left, of which I like three; those three are the Cubs, Royals, and Blue Jays. The one fly in the ointment is the Mets, an Oligopoly team that seemingly came out of nowhere this year. It is my sad prediction that that one team I dislike will win the World Series. I may have been wrong about a lot of stuff, but in this I feel fairly confident: The New York Mets are your 2015 World Series Champions.

Why? First of all, the Royals and Blue Jays aren't Oligopoly members, so they're out. Whoever wins the NL wins the World Series. Second of all, the only team standing in the Mets' way is the Cubs. I would love, love, to see the Cubs finally win the World Series so that we could stop talking about 1908, the Billy Goat Curse and all that other malarkey, but the Cubs not making it to the World Series has a much longer history than the decade-long Oligopoly. It breaks my heart to say that despite the patterns that have ended this October, that one might be too big to vanquish, at least right now.

This situation reminds me of 2011, where the Cardinals were the only team in the Final Four that I didn't like, and not only did they win the World Series, they did it in the most spirit-crushing way imaginable. Just for the heck of it, I'll predict that the Royals will find themselves in the same position as the 2011 Rangers; they'll be ready to redeem themselves from the previous year's World Series loss, and on the verge of winning, only to fall to a miracle comeback by an Oligopoly team. Those poor Kansas City fans.

A lot of people probably are surprised to see the Mets where they are, but not me. I have seen the Oligopoly, and I knew even when the Mets weren't good that they would be allowed to win it if they ever became good. I may get some of the particulars wrong, but the closer we get to the end, the easier it is to see who the winner will be, and it is clear to me that when this postseason ends, the fifth-best team in the NL will be hoisting the World Series trophy. The media will gush, because they seem to believe the Mets are a franchise that the entire country is endlessly fascinated by (though I certainly am not, and I don't know anyone else who is), and their fans might tone down the self-pity a little (if we're lucky, which we probably won't be).

Oh baseball. This Oligopoly has made things all too predictable. I hate it.

Playoff Predictions 2015

Would this be a real baseball blog if it didn't make predictions for how the postseason would play out? Like all other fans, I have a duty to make my picks. I'll lay them out here and explain them below.

Stupid Wild Card Game That Nobody Wanted:

Yankees over Astros
Cubs over Pirates

LDS:

Cardinals over Cubs
Dodgers over Mets
Yankees over Royals
Rangers over Blue Jays


LCS:

Cardinals over Dodgers
Yankees over Rangers

World Series:

Yankees over Cardinals


OK, so now the big question is how I came to the conclusion that this mediocre Yankee team is destined to take home the hardware yet again.

When making playoff predictions, the first thing to consider (at least for me) is the Oligopoly. Of this year's crop, the AL has one Oligopoly team (the Yankees), and the NL has four of them (all but the Pirates). So we know that only those five have any shot of winning the World Series.

This decade has seen an alternating pattern between the Giants and Cardinals for the NL pennant, so if that pattern continues, it's the Cardinals' turn this year. However, the Cardinals have an outstanding team this year, and if you look at the pattern since the 1980s, the Cardinals' outstanding playoff teams never win the World Series. Their less-impressive teams are always the ones that win the whole shebang. So we know up front that the Cardinals will represent the NL in the World Series and lose.

The Yankees are the only Oligopoly team in the AL playoff picture, so that makes them the only team the Cardinals can lose to. Hence, the Yanks will beat the Cards in the Fall Classic.

What a rotten ending to this season, huh?

Oldest Ringless Players: 2015

Another postseason is here, which means it's time to look at the Oldest Ringless Player for each championship contender. You know the drill. 40-man roster, oldest player without a championship ring. Here we go:

Chicago Cubs: Fernando Rodney (March 18, 1977)
Houston Astros:Chad Qualls (August 17, 1978)
Kansas City Royals: Jeremy Guthrie (April 8, 1979)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Joel Peralta (March 23, 1976)
New York Mets: Bartolo Colon (May 24, 1973)
New York Yankees:Carlos Beltran (April 24, 1977)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Aramis Ramirez (June 25, 1978)
St. Louis Cardinals: Matt Belisle (June 6, 1980)
Texas Rangers: Adrian Beltre (April 7, 1979)
Toronto Blue Jays: LaTroy Hawkins (December 21, 1972)

Funny how these lists often end up being full of journeyman relief pitchers. It really takes the fun out of making them.

The Athletics Franchise Deep Six

Of the Original 16 franchises, we've finally come to the last one, the Philadelphia/Kansas City/Oakland Athletics! Let's take a look at this much-traveled franchise, whose history is a hodgepodge of dynasties and fire sales.

	P	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	LF	CF	RF
1st	Lefty Grove	Mickey Cochrane	Jimmie Foxx	Eddie Collins	Home Run Baker	Bert Campaneris	Rickey Henderson	Dwayne Murphy	Reggie Jackson
2nd	Rube Waddell	Terry Steinbach	Mark McGwire	Max Bishop	Sal Bando	Eddie Joost	Al Simmons	Dave Henderson	Jose Canseco
3rd	Eddie Plank	Frankie Hayes	Jason Giambi	Mark Ellis	Eric Chavez	Jack Barry	Bob Johnson	Amos Strunk	Socks Seybold
4th	Tim Hudson	Wally Schang	Harry Davis	Danny Murphy	Carney Lansford	Miguel Tejada	Joe Rudi	Bill North	Josh Reddick
5th	Eddie Rommel	Kurt Suzuki	Stuffy McInnis	Dick Green	Josh Donaldson	Mike Bordick	Topsy Hartsel	Coco Crisp	Wally Moses
6th	Chief Bender	Ossee Schrecongost	Ferris Fain	Nap Lajoie	Lave Cross	Walt Weiss	Tillie Walker	Rick Monday	Mike Davis

That's one great 1st Team. All but two are Hall of Famers. The 2nd Team, though, feels like a huge dropoff. Waddell and Simmons are all-timers, and Bando and McGwire are both borderliners, but the rest? Fine players, not immortals.

The position that really surprised me this time was third base. The A's have more depth there than I would've expected. With the season Josh Donaldson is currently having, he might've stood to rank even higher if he hadn't been traded.

I was frustrated trying to pick guys for the lower teams at several of these positions. There was just too much mediocrity. For a franchise that's won nine World Series, they sure aren't that deep. The great Athletic teams tended to burn brightly and be snuffed out quickly.

I plan to continue this series with the expansion franchises, but since they don't have as much history, I won't be doing a Deep Six. For the 1961-77 franchises I'll be doing a Deep Four, and for the 1993-98 franchises I'll be doing a Deep Three. We'll see those after this season is over.

The Dodgers Franchise Deep Six

And the last of the classic eight National League franchises is off the board! And there's only one classic AL team to do after this one! So how do the boys from Brooklyn and L.A. look?

	P	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	LF	CF	RF
1st	Dazzy Vance	Mike Piazza	Gil Hodges	Jackie Robinson	Ron Cey	Pee Wee Reese	Zack Wheat	Duke Snider	Carl Furillo
2nd	Sandy Koufax	Roy Campanella	Dolph Camilli	Davey Lopes	Adrian Beltre	Bill Dahlen	Jimmy Sheckard	Willie Davis	Dixie Walker
3rd	Don Drysdale	Mike Scioscia	Jack Fournier	Jim Gilliam	George Pinkney	Maury Wills	Gary Sheffield	Mike Griffin	Reggie Smith
4th	Clayton Kershaw	John Roseboro	Steve Garvey	Tom Daly	Joe Stripp	Bill Russell	Dusty Baker	Matt Kemp	Shawn Green
5th	Nap Rucker	Paul Lo Duca	Jake Daubert	Eddie Stanky	Red Smith	Rafael Furcal	Pedro Guerrero	Pete Reiser	Babe Herman
6th	Jeff Pfeffer	Russell Martin	Wes Parker	Steve Sax	Cookie Lavagetto	Germany Smith	Wally Moon	Brett Butler	Willie Keeler

Pretty good indeed! Three of their four infield spots on the 1st Team are from the Boys of Summer era, as are two of the three outfield spots. Is it safe to say that was the greatest period in Dodger history?

Some people might be upset that I named Dazzy Vance starting pitcher for the 1st Team over Sandy Koufax, but I thought the numbers merited it. Koufax had an incredible peak, but Vance's was plenty dominant as well. The main difference is that Koufax is a legend of living memory, while Vance played in the 1920's for the Daffiness Boys. Clayton Kershaw is making his way up the list too, so this generation may have its own immortal Dodger hurler to tell their grandchildren about.

Third base was definitely the weakest position here. I never realized how few great third basemen the Dodgers have had. I wasn't familiar with George Pinkney, the 3rd Team third sacker, until I compiled this list. And to think he was the greatest Dodger third baseman until the 1970s.