Sunday, October 4, 2015

Playoff Predictions 2015

Would this be a real baseball blog if it didn't make predictions for how the postseason would play out? Like all other fans, I have a duty to make my picks. I'll lay them out here and explain them below.

Stupid Wild Card Game That Nobody Wanted:

Yankees over Astros
Cubs over Pirates


Cardinals over Cubs
Dodgers over Mets
Yankees over Royals
Rangers over Blue Jays


Cardinals over Dodgers
Yankees over Rangers

World Series:

Yankees over Cardinals

OK, so now the big question is how I came to the conclusion that this mediocre Yankee team is destined to take home the hardware yet again.

When making playoff predictions, the first thing to consider (at least for me) is the Oligopoly. Of this year's crop, the AL has one Oligopoly team (the Yankees), and the NL has four of them (all but the Pirates). So we know that only those five have any shot of winning the World Series.

This decade has seen an alternating pattern between the Giants and Cardinals for the NL pennant, so if that pattern continues, it's the Cardinals' turn this year. However, the Cardinals have an outstanding team this year, and if you look at the pattern since the 1980s, the Cardinals' outstanding playoff teams never win the World Series. Their less-impressive teams are always the ones that win the whole shebang. So we know up front that the Cardinals will represent the NL in the World Series and lose.

The Yankees are the only Oligopoly team in the AL playoff picture, so that makes them the only team the Cardinals can lose to. Hence, the Yanks will beat the Cards in the Fall Classic.

What a rotten ending to this season, huh?

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