The 2018 season is upon us, and that means it's time to make some predictions. If you recall, last year I predicted a World Series matchup between Los Angeles and Houston, so clearly Baseball Junk Drawer is the place to be if you want the dope. What do I predict for 2018? Let's dive in!
NL WEST
Los Angeles
San Francisco*
Colorado
Arizona
San Diego
NL CENTRAL
Milwaukee
Chicago*
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
NL EAST
Washington
New York
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Miami
AL WEST
Houston
Los Angeles*
Oakland
Seattle
Texas
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Kansas City
Detroit
AL EAST
New York
Boston*
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay
PLAYOFFS:
WILD CARD GAMES
San Francisco over Chicago
Boston over Los Angeles
DIVISIONAL SERIES
Washington over Milwaukee
Los Angeles over San Francisco
Boston over Houston
New York over Cleveland
LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Los Angeles over Washington
New York over Boston
WORLD SERIES
Los Angeles over New York
As you can see, I predict this season to have a pretty boring outcome. Milwaukee is the only "surprise" team I went with, and the only real postseason surprise is Washington finally getting past the first round. But take heart: I'm sure a few games will be fun to watch. Let's hope I'm not as accurate as I was last year!
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Monday, March 12, 2018
Is the 1990s Cub Pitcher Death Phenomenon Unusual?
With the recent release of the February 2018 SABR Biographical Research Committee newsletter, it was revealed that a few deaths from years past slipped through the cracks. One of them was former lefty reliever Doug Slaten, who last played in 2012, but whose 2016 death somehow evaded the notice of the baseball world. Another was former journeyman righty reliever Randy Veres, who also died in 2016. The thing about Veres, though, is that he is yet another deceased pitcher from the 1990s-era Cubs, as he showed up on their staff in 1994.
The tally of Cub pitcher deaths from 1991 to 2000 (yes, I shifted the window slightly to include one player) now stands as follows:
Rod Beck (June 23, 2007)
Geremi Gonzalez (May 25, 2008)
Kevin Foster (October 11, 2008)
Dave Smith (December 17, 2008)
Jessie Hollins (July 9, 2009)
Frank Castillo (July 28, 2013)
Ruben Quevedo (June 7, 2016)
Randy Veres (November 7, 2016)
Anthony Young (June 27, 2017)
That's nine players, all hurlers. No Cub non-pitcher deaths have been reported from that same era, and no deaths at all have been reported from the 1986-90 Cubs.
Out of curiosity, I've decided to compare the number of Cub deaths from 1991-2000 to other teams from the same era. Let's see how many individual players have been reported dead from each franchise:
The data show the Astros with the most total player deaths, but the Cubs have the lead in pitcher deaths, with three more than the Orioles and Astros, who tie for second. While it's probably nothing more than a statistical anomaly, it does seem odd that I picked up on the trend in 2013 and it's only continued since then. You'd think at some point it would even out a bit. We'll have to keep our eyes on this phenomenon.
The tally of Cub pitcher deaths from 1991 to 2000 (yes, I shifted the window slightly to include one player) now stands as follows:
Rod Beck (June 23, 2007)
Geremi Gonzalez (May 25, 2008)
Kevin Foster (October 11, 2008)
Dave Smith (December 17, 2008)
Jessie Hollins (July 9, 2009)
Frank Castillo (July 28, 2013)
Ruben Quevedo (June 7, 2016)
Randy Veres (November 7, 2016)
Anthony Young (June 27, 2017)
That's nine players, all hurlers. No Cub non-pitcher deaths have been reported from that same era, and no deaths at all have been reported from the 1986-90 Cubs.
Out of curiosity, I've decided to compare the number of Cub deaths from 1991-2000 to other teams from the same era. Let's see how many individual players have been reported dead from each franchise:
| Deaths | Pitchers | |
|---|---|---|
| Angels | 4 | 2 |
| Astros | 10 | 6 |
| Athletics | 4 | 2 |
| Blue Jays | 5 | 4 |
| Braves | 4 | 2 |
| Brewers | 3 | 0 |
| Cardinals | 2 | 1 |
| Cubs | 9 | 9 |
| Devil Rays | 2 | 1 |
| Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 |
| Dodgers | 3 | 1 |
| Expos | 5 | 2 |
| Giants | 5 | 3 |
| Indians | 4 | 3 |
| Mariners | 3 | 2 |
| Marlins | 4 | 2 |
| Mets | 5 | 2 |
| Orioles | 9 | 6 |
| Padres | 5 | 0 |
| Phillies | 7 | 4 |
| Pirates | 2 | 2 |
| Rangers | 5 | 3 |
| Red Sox | 5 | 2 |
| Reds | 2 | 2 |
| Rockies | 4 | 3 |
| Royals | 5 | 4 |
| Tigers | 9 | 5 |
| Twins | 3 | 0 |
| White Sox | 3 | 0 |
| Yankees | 3 | 3 |
The data show the Astros with the most total player deaths, but the Cubs have the lead in pitcher deaths, with three more than the Orioles and Astros, who tie for second. While it's probably nothing more than a statistical anomaly, it does seem odd that I picked up on the trend in 2013 and it's only continued since then. You'd think at some point it would even out a bit. We'll have to keep our eyes on this phenomenon.
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