After ten years, the Kansas City Royals have finally vanquished the Oligopoly. May it never show its ugly face again. Yes, we'll hear another year of Met fans whining about how much they've had to suffer without a World Series title (30 whole years! Boo-freaking-hoo!), but it's a small price to pay.
The Royals were a joke for most of my baseball fandom. The winning season they had in 2003 was the first I ever saw from them, and at that point, it was a novel occurrence. They immediately followed it with another string of losing seasons, most of which only caught the attention of baseball fans due to Joe Posnanski's blog. They had become emblematic of the small-market franchise struggling to compete with the big dogs.
In the early 2010's, their minor league system was the talk of baseball, and things seemed to be looking up at last. But there was still the question of how or when these guys would mature. And of course, the postseason being as fluky as it is, could they defy the odds and win the World Series?
It looks like the script couldn't have played out any better: K.C. did it with their homegrown guys, overcame deficit after deficit, and made it to the top of the hill. It was the culmination of a long process, and a dream ending for every small-market club that needs to invest heavily in scouting and player development just to contend at all. They've given a glimmer of hope to a lot of fans who've had to watch the big-ticket squads take the trophy in recent years.
Now that the Oligopoly has been squashed, 2016 might be worth looking forward to. Let's hope next year's World Series champion will be another group as likable and interesting as this one.
Congratulations, Royals!
Showing posts with label oligopoly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oligopoly. Show all posts
Monday, November 2, 2015
Monday, October 19, 2015
The Oligopoly and the LCS
It looks like my playoff predictions have been busted pretty badly. But no matter. I can't predict when longstanding patterns will finally be broken. In this case, it was the pattern of the Cardinals and Giants alternating NL pennants. That ended this year, which meant that the "100-Win Curse" wasn't destined to fell St. Louis at the hands of the AL's only Oligopoly team.
There are now four teams left, of which I like three; those three are the Cubs, Royals, and Blue Jays. The one fly in the ointment is the Mets, an Oligopoly team that seemingly came out of nowhere this year. It is my sad prediction that that one team I dislike will win the World Series. I may have been wrong about a lot of stuff, but in this I feel fairly confident: The New York Mets are your 2015 World Series Champions.
Why? First of all, the Royals and Blue Jays aren't Oligopoly members, so they're out. Whoever wins the NL wins the World Series. Second of all, the only team standing in the Mets' way is the Cubs. I would love, love, to see the Cubs finally win the World Series so that we could stop talking about 1908, the Billy Goat Curse and all that other malarkey, but the Cubs not making it to the World Series has a much longer history than the decade-long Oligopoly. It breaks my heart to say that despite the patterns that have ended this October, that one might be too big to vanquish, at least right now.
This situation reminds me of 2011, where the Cardinals were the only team in the Final Four that I didn't like, and not only did they win the World Series, they did it in the most spirit-crushing way imaginable. Just for the heck of it, I'll predict that the Royals will find themselves in the same position as the 2011 Rangers; they'll be ready to redeem themselves from the previous year's World Series loss, and on the verge of winning, only to fall to a miracle comeback by an Oligopoly team. Those poor Kansas City fans.
A lot of people probably are surprised to see the Mets where they are, but not me. I have seen the Oligopoly, and I knew even when the Mets weren't good that they would be allowed to win it if they ever became good. I may get some of the particulars wrong, but the closer we get to the end, the easier it is to see who the winner will be, and it is clear to me that when this postseason ends, the fifth-best team in the NL will be hoisting the World Series trophy. The media will gush, because they seem to believe the Mets are a franchise that the entire country is endlessly fascinated by (though I certainly am not, and I don't know anyone else who is), and their fans might tone down the self-pity a little (if we're lucky, which we probably won't be).
Oh baseball. This Oligopoly has made things all too predictable. I hate it.
There are now four teams left, of which I like three; those three are the Cubs, Royals, and Blue Jays. The one fly in the ointment is the Mets, an Oligopoly team that seemingly came out of nowhere this year. It is my sad prediction that that one team I dislike will win the World Series. I may have been wrong about a lot of stuff, but in this I feel fairly confident: The New York Mets are your 2015 World Series Champions.
Why? First of all, the Royals and Blue Jays aren't Oligopoly members, so they're out. Whoever wins the NL wins the World Series. Second of all, the only team standing in the Mets' way is the Cubs. I would love, love, to see the Cubs finally win the World Series so that we could stop talking about 1908, the Billy Goat Curse and all that other malarkey, but the Cubs not making it to the World Series has a much longer history than the decade-long Oligopoly. It breaks my heart to say that despite the patterns that have ended this October, that one might be too big to vanquish, at least right now.
This situation reminds me of 2011, where the Cardinals were the only team in the Final Four that I didn't like, and not only did they win the World Series, they did it in the most spirit-crushing way imaginable. Just for the heck of it, I'll predict that the Royals will find themselves in the same position as the 2011 Rangers; they'll be ready to redeem themselves from the previous year's World Series loss, and on the verge of winning, only to fall to a miracle comeback by an Oligopoly team. Those poor Kansas City fans.
A lot of people probably are surprised to see the Mets where they are, but not me. I have seen the Oligopoly, and I knew even when the Mets weren't good that they would be allowed to win it if they ever became good. I may get some of the particulars wrong, but the closer we get to the end, the easier it is to see who the winner will be, and it is clear to me that when this postseason ends, the fifth-best team in the NL will be hoisting the World Series trophy. The media will gush, because they seem to believe the Mets are a franchise that the entire country is endlessly fascinated by (though I certainly am not, and I don't know anyone else who is), and their fans might tone down the self-pity a little (if we're lucky, which we probably won't be).
Oh baseball. This Oligopoly has made things all too predictable. I hate it.
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Playoff Predictions 2015
Would this be a real baseball blog if it didn't make predictions for how the postseason would play out? Like all other fans, I have a duty to make my picks. I'll lay them out here and explain them below.
Stupid Wild Card Game That Nobody Wanted:
Yankees over Astros
Cubs over Pirates
LDS:
Cardinals over Cubs
Dodgers over Mets
Yankees over Royals
Rangers over Blue Jays
LCS:
Cardinals over Dodgers
Yankees over Rangers
World Series:
Yankees over Cardinals
OK, so now the big question is how I came to the conclusion that this mediocre Yankee team is destined to take home the hardware yet again.
When making playoff predictions, the first thing to consider (at least for me) is the Oligopoly. Of this year's crop, the AL has one Oligopoly team (the Yankees), and the NL has four of them (all but the Pirates). So we know that only those five have any shot of winning the World Series.
This decade has seen an alternating pattern between the Giants and Cardinals for the NL pennant, so if that pattern continues, it's the Cardinals' turn this year. However, the Cardinals have an outstanding team this year, and if you look at the pattern since the 1980s, the Cardinals' outstanding playoff teams never win the World Series. Their less-impressive teams are always the ones that win the whole shebang. So we know up front that the Cardinals will represent the NL in the World Series and lose.
The Yankees are the only Oligopoly team in the AL playoff picture, so that makes them the only team the Cardinals can lose to. Hence, the Yanks will beat the Cards in the Fall Classic.
What a rotten ending to this season, huh?
Stupid Wild Card Game That Nobody Wanted:
Yankees over Astros
Cubs over Pirates
LDS:
Cardinals over Cubs
Dodgers over Mets
Yankees over Royals
Rangers over Blue Jays
LCS:
Cardinals over Dodgers
Yankees over Rangers
World Series:
Yankees over Cardinals
OK, so now the big question is how I came to the conclusion that this mediocre Yankee team is destined to take home the hardware yet again.
When making playoff predictions, the first thing to consider (at least for me) is the Oligopoly. Of this year's crop, the AL has one Oligopoly team (the Yankees), and the NL has four of them (all but the Pirates). So we know that only those five have any shot of winning the World Series.
This decade has seen an alternating pattern between the Giants and Cardinals for the NL pennant, so if that pattern continues, it's the Cardinals' turn this year. However, the Cardinals have an outstanding team this year, and if you look at the pattern since the 1980s, the Cardinals' outstanding playoff teams never win the World Series. Their less-impressive teams are always the ones that win the whole shebang. So we know up front that the Cardinals will represent the NL in the World Series and lose.
The Yankees are the only Oligopoly team in the AL playoff picture, so that makes them the only team the Cardinals can lose to. Hence, the Yanks will beat the Cards in the Fall Classic.
What a rotten ending to this season, huh?
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Oligopoly FAQ
I've shared my theory about what I've termed "the Oligopoly" in real life and on the internet, and for the most part it's been met with confusion and questions about my sanity. I'm not here to be defensive, since I understand the skepticism of those who can't see. I've come to realize though, that this theory is easily misunderstood, as is my own claim to knowledge of it.
While I've discussed it in some detail in previous posts, I thought it would be good to write one comprehensive post explaining it fully, and clarifying both what it is and is not. For the first time I can recall in my life, I'm writing an FAQ, and answers will be as detailed as I think is necessary.
What is the Oligopoly?
Simply put, the Oligopoly is a select group of Major League Baseball franchises that are also media favorites. The theory is that starting in 2006, some inexplicable force has kept anyone outside this select group from winning the World Series.
So this is a conspiracy theory?
No, because I don't believe there's anyone conspiring. I don't think anyone is rigging games or pulling strings to get a certain result. It's just something that happens. There seems to be an intangible sort of magic that carries one of these franchises to the championship every year.
What are you saying, that there's voodoo involved?
I make absolutely no claim to know how it works, I just observe the pattern. Perhaps the good vibes from the media somehow give these franchises a psychological boost. I just don't know.
Which franchises are in the Oligopoly?
Any franchise that's won the World Series since 2006 is an obvious member, meaning the Cardinals, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees and Giants. Other franchises believed to be Oligopoly members are the Dodgers and Mets, since the national media would obviously have no objection to either one winning the World Series. There are other franchises that may or may not be Oligopoly members, such as the Angels, Braves and Cubs, but one can't be certain.
Wait just a second here...you don't even know for certain who's in it?
I'm only saying I don't know the full extent of the Oligopoly. While the Angels and Braves aren't overwhelming media favorites, I could see a title for either franchise being favorably received by the media. As for the Cubs, while they're a clear media favorite, they're also a franchise that derives a lot of mystique from not winning the World Series, so perhaps the media would be disappointed not to have that narrative any longer. There are other teams you could make cases for, so I wouldn't necessarily rule them out, but I don't believe they're members.
This makes no sense! Why would a franchise in a relatively small market like the Cardinals be in it instead of a bigger-market franchise like the White Sox, or even the Tigers?
Because neither one of those franchises has ever dominated historically, and both lack a brand that transcends their region. The Cardinals are one of baseball's flagship franchises, and let's face it, the media never tire of talking about what a strong organization they have.
OK, but what about the Phillies? You claim they're in the Oligopoly, but do you really think they have a brand that transcends their region?
No, and I wouldn't say the Mets do either. However, I believe the Mets to be Oligopoly members, because the media have always loved giving them attention, and the Phillies are part of the northeast regional media lovefest. Before the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, the city's title drought that extended back to 1983 got tons of media play, despite being dwarfed by the droughts of cities like San Diego, Buffalo and Cleveland. The media like talking about Philadelphia enough that a Phillie World Series title, while nowhere near as glamorous as say, a Yankee title, is still pretty darn cool to them.
It sounds to me like you're working backwards. Aren't you just making a post hoc rationalization for why certain teams win?
I can see how it would look that way to the skeptic, but I ask you to take a look at some of the teams that have lost the World Series since the start of the Oligopoly: The 2006 Tigers, 2007 Rockies, 2008 Rays, 2010-11 Rangers, 2012 Tigers and 2014 Royals. Right there you have seven teams. All are from franchises that aren't particular media favorites, and none has a widely-recognizable brand. Each of them lost to a team that fit the Oligopoly criteria. The only one on that list I'd consider clearly inferior to their opponent is the 2007 Rockies. Given normal odds, you'd think at least one or two of these teams would've won. It sure seems like more than a coincidence, doesn't it?
But the Royals came close! They lost Game 7 of the World Series by a single run! What if they had won that game?
Then I would have declared the Oliopoly dead. However, they didn't win, so it does nothing to refute the theory.
Why do you use 2006 as a cutoff? Is there something special about that date?
Because the 2005 White Sox are the last World Series Champion I don't believe to be part of the Oligopoly. My little pet theory is that as a White Sox fan, this is my punishment for finally being allowed to see them win it, but I don't necessarily believe that. Why it started at that time remains, like most things Oligopoly-related, a mystery.
So you think this Oligopoly is just going to continue for all eternity, and no one outside this group is ever going to win the World Series again?
No. I have a feeling it'll come to an end at some point, and I'll probably be rejoicing when it does. For the time being though, we're stuck under the dark cloud of media favorite dominance.
What would it take for you to declare the Oligopoly dead?
A team would have to win the World Series that is a clear non-media favorite. If I can't plausibly argue that said team is an Oligopoly member, then it will be proof that the Oligopoly is no longer in effect.
And which teams would those be?
There are 14 teams I am all but certain are not in the Oligopoly. If one of them won the World Series, I'd declare the Oligopoly dead:
I'm nearly certain about the following teams being non-members too, but I could imagine a case being made for any of them. If one of them won the World Series, I'd probably declare the Oligopoly dead, but there'd be lingering doubts:
Doesn't any of this sound nuts to you?
Sure. I don't want to believe this is true, but after seeing the same thing happen year after year, it's hard not to feel like it's true. I would love to have optimism about the teams I like getting a chance to hoist the World Series trophy, but the Oligopoly has numbed me to such hopes. Hopefully it'll come to an end sooner rather than later. Until it does though, I'll continue to be a pessimist.
While I've discussed it in some detail in previous posts, I thought it would be good to write one comprehensive post explaining it fully, and clarifying both what it is and is not. For the first time I can recall in my life, I'm writing an FAQ, and answers will be as detailed as I think is necessary.
What is the Oligopoly?
Simply put, the Oligopoly is a select group of Major League Baseball franchises that are also media favorites. The theory is that starting in 2006, some inexplicable force has kept anyone outside this select group from winning the World Series.
So this is a conspiracy theory?
No, because I don't believe there's anyone conspiring. I don't think anyone is rigging games or pulling strings to get a certain result. It's just something that happens. There seems to be an intangible sort of magic that carries one of these franchises to the championship every year.
What are you saying, that there's voodoo involved?
I make absolutely no claim to know how it works, I just observe the pattern. Perhaps the good vibes from the media somehow give these franchises a psychological boost. I just don't know.
Which franchises are in the Oligopoly?
Any franchise that's won the World Series since 2006 is an obvious member, meaning the Cardinals, Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees and Giants. Other franchises believed to be Oligopoly members are the Dodgers and Mets, since the national media would obviously have no objection to either one winning the World Series. There are other franchises that may or may not be Oligopoly members, such as the Angels, Braves and Cubs, but one can't be certain.
Wait just a second here...you don't even know for certain who's in it?
I'm only saying I don't know the full extent of the Oligopoly. While the Angels and Braves aren't overwhelming media favorites, I could see a title for either franchise being favorably received by the media. As for the Cubs, while they're a clear media favorite, they're also a franchise that derives a lot of mystique from not winning the World Series, so perhaps the media would be disappointed not to have that narrative any longer. There are other teams you could make cases for, so I wouldn't necessarily rule them out, but I don't believe they're members.
This makes no sense! Why would a franchise in a relatively small market like the Cardinals be in it instead of a bigger-market franchise like the White Sox, or even the Tigers?
Because neither one of those franchises has ever dominated historically, and both lack a brand that transcends their region. The Cardinals are one of baseball's flagship franchises, and let's face it, the media never tire of talking about what a strong organization they have.
OK, but what about the Phillies? You claim they're in the Oligopoly, but do you really think they have a brand that transcends their region?
No, and I wouldn't say the Mets do either. However, I believe the Mets to be Oligopoly members, because the media have always loved giving them attention, and the Phillies are part of the northeast regional media lovefest. Before the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, the city's title drought that extended back to 1983 got tons of media play, despite being dwarfed by the droughts of cities like San Diego, Buffalo and Cleveland. The media like talking about Philadelphia enough that a Phillie World Series title, while nowhere near as glamorous as say, a Yankee title, is still pretty darn cool to them.
It sounds to me like you're working backwards. Aren't you just making a post hoc rationalization for why certain teams win?
I can see how it would look that way to the skeptic, but I ask you to take a look at some of the teams that have lost the World Series since the start of the Oligopoly: The 2006 Tigers, 2007 Rockies, 2008 Rays, 2010-11 Rangers, 2012 Tigers and 2014 Royals. Right there you have seven teams. All are from franchises that aren't particular media favorites, and none has a widely-recognizable brand. Each of them lost to a team that fit the Oligopoly criteria. The only one on that list I'd consider clearly inferior to their opponent is the 2007 Rockies. Given normal odds, you'd think at least one or two of these teams would've won. It sure seems like more than a coincidence, doesn't it?
But the Royals came close! They lost Game 7 of the World Series by a single run! What if they had won that game?
Then I would have declared the Oliopoly dead. However, they didn't win, so it does nothing to refute the theory.
Why do you use 2006 as a cutoff? Is there something special about that date?
Because the 2005 White Sox are the last World Series Champion I don't believe to be part of the Oligopoly. My little pet theory is that as a White Sox fan, this is my punishment for finally being allowed to see them win it, but I don't necessarily believe that. Why it started at that time remains, like most things Oligopoly-related, a mystery.
So you think this Oligopoly is just going to continue for all eternity, and no one outside this group is ever going to win the World Series again?
No. I have a feeling it'll come to an end at some point, and I'll probably be rejoicing when it does. For the time being though, we're stuck under the dark cloud of media favorite dominance.
What would it take for you to declare the Oligopoly dead?
A team would have to win the World Series that is a clear non-media favorite. If I can't plausibly argue that said team is an Oligopoly member, then it will be proof that the Oligopoly is no longer in effect.
And which teams would those be?
There are 14 teams I am all but certain are not in the Oligopoly. If one of them won the World Series, I'd declare the Oligopoly dead:
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Cincinnati Reds
- Cleveland Indians
- Colorado Rockies
- Houston Astros
- Kansas City Royals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Minnesota Twins
- Oakland Athletics
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- San Diego Padres
- Seattle Mariners
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
I'm nearly certain about the following teams being non-members too, but I could imagine a case being made for any of them. If one of them won the World Series, I'd probably declare the Oligopoly dead, but there'd be lingering doubts:
- Baltimore Orioles
- Chicago White Sox
- Detroit Tigers
- Miami Marlins
- Texas Rangers
- Washington Nationals
Doesn't any of this sound nuts to you?
Sure. I don't want to believe this is true, but after seeing the same thing happen year after year, it's hard not to feel like it's true. I would love to have optimism about the teams I like getting a chance to hoist the World Series trophy, but the Oligopoly has numbed me to such hopes. Hopefully it'll come to an end sooner rather than later. Until it does though, I'll continue to be a pessimist.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
It's All Over
So the Giants won. Just as I predicted. The Oligopoly remains intact. Before the playoffs began, I knew which teams had a chance, and which ones didn't, because I understood how the Oligopoly works. For me personally, this is my ninth straight World Series disappointment, and my fourth straight rerun championship. And people wonder why I'm so bitter about this game.
Oh well. It's all over now, and I can move on with my life instead of spending time loving a game that hates me.
Oh well. It's all over now, and I can move on with my life instead of spending time loving a game that hates me.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Gearing Up For Another World Series...and the Inevitable Result
Soooo...my predictions were just a bit off. I did all right predicting the early rounds, but I got both pennant winners wrong. I sure underestimated the Giants and Royals.
I'm not going to waste my time doing much analysis of this World Series, since it's a given that the Giants are going to win. I predict five games tops. The Royals have been a streaky team all year, so they're due to cool off soon. They have the look of one of those fun, memorable teams that doesn't quite win it all, while the Giants are a member of the Oligopoly, so the end result is a foregone conclusion. Still, I'll tune in, just to say I've seen the Royals play in the World Series. Given the size of their market, and how much broke right just for them to get this far, it's possible we won't see them here again for another 29 years.
Hats off to you, Royals. I've enjoyed watching your run, and the fans in Kansas City should always cherish this. It's just not destiny, because you're not one of the privileged big-ticket franchises that gets to win the World Series. I would love to be wrong on this, but I don't think I am. Take comfort in knowing that in the future, this one will be just another Giants title, while it'll be a legendary season in Royals lore. That has to count for something.
I'm not going to waste my time doing much analysis of this World Series, since it's a given that the Giants are going to win. I predict five games tops. The Royals have been a streaky team all year, so they're due to cool off soon. They have the look of one of those fun, memorable teams that doesn't quite win it all, while the Giants are a member of the Oligopoly, so the end result is a foregone conclusion. Still, I'll tune in, just to say I've seen the Royals play in the World Series. Given the size of their market, and how much broke right just for them to get this far, it's possible we won't see them here again for another 29 years.
Hats off to you, Royals. I've enjoyed watching your run, and the fans in Kansas City should always cherish this. It's just not destiny, because you're not one of the privileged big-ticket franchises that gets to win the World Series. I would love to be wrong on this, but I don't think I am. Take comfort in knowing that in the future, this one will be just another Giants title, while it'll be a legendary season in Royals lore. That has to count for something.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
All-Star Break Report
Well, we're just past the halfway point of the season, and after last night's Derek Jeter tongue bath All Star Game, we have the official "second half" to look forward to. Let's take a look at the standings, and see if we can't make any predictions about what October might have in store. Bear in mind, I believe in the oligopoly, so I'm not optimistic about seeing anything interesting happen. We'll see how things look in comparison to my preseason predictions.
AL East:
The first-place team is surprisingly the Orioles, who have a four-game lead over the Blue Jays. It would be nice to see someone besides the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays win this division (well, I don't mind the Rays so much), and this would seem to be the year for one of the others to do it. However, the Yankees and Red Sox are members of the oligopoly, while I don't think any other team in this division is, so until they're eliminated, I can't count either one of them out. This division is packed pretty tightly, so even the teams at the bottom still have a shot. Although losing Masahiro Tanaka would be a huge blow, I stand by my prediction that the Yankees are somehow, someway going to win this division. They're evil. It's what they do. I had the Rays winning a Wild Card spot, but I don't see them pulling that off this year.
AL Central:
The current standings are exactly the same as my predicted final standings, so I'm looking pretty good there. I'll stick with my prediction that the Tigers win the Central, and as for my Wild Card prediction for the Royals, I'll stand by that too. They're close behind the Mariners in the race for the stupid second Wild Card spot that nobody wanted, so I think they can still do it. I hope they do.
AL West:
This division has the team with the best record in baseball, the Oakland Athletics. The A's seem to be going all in this year, trading away their top two prospects for starting pitching. After years of frequent-but-forgettable playoff performances, it seems that they're ready to make this year special. I would love to see it, but there's just one problem: They're not part of the oligopoly, so they won't win the World Series, as much as I'd love to see it happen. The Angels are close behind the A's, and they're sort of a fringe oligopoly member, so I could see them possibly winning the World Series, but I wouldn't particularly be interested in that. I picked the Rangers to win this division, but after a bargeload of injuries, their season's already a lost cause. I'm going to amend my prediction to Oakland winning the division and Anaheim winning the Wild Card. The surprising Mariners will fall short.
NL East:
This is pretty much a two-team race between the Nationals and Braves. As a National rooter, I'd like to see them do it, but they're not part of the oligopoly, unlike the Braves. I had the Nats winning the division and the Braves the Wild Card, and I guess I'll stick by that.
NL Central:
I predicted the Brewers would finish in last place, but they're actually in first, surprisingly. I don't think they're for real though, and don't expect them to make the postseason. I also made the out-of-left-field prediction that the Cubs would win the Wild Card, and I think it's safe to say I look like a fool on that one, as they currently sit in last place and have already punted on this season. No biggie. I figured I'd be wrong. I just wanted bragging rights in case I was right. I predicted that the Cardinals would win the division, and even when they struggled early on, I said they were going to do it. I stand by that prediction, because the Cardinals are pure evil and always find a way. Though this is a four-team race on paper, I say it's inevitable that St. Louis takes it and the Brewers, Reds and Pirates are all left out in the cold.
NL West:
This is another two-team race between the Giants and Dodgers. Rivalry! I had the Dodgers winning the division and the Giants in second place. I stand by that prediction, although I'll amend it to have the Giants winning a Wild Card spot.
So here are my amended predictions at the All-Star Break:
NL Wild Card: Giants over Braves
AL Wild Card: Angels over Royals
NLDS1: Cardinals over Giants
NLDS2: Dodgers over Nationals
ALDS1: Angels over Athletics
ALDS2: Tigers over Yankees
NLCS: Cardinals over Dodgers
ALCS: Angels over Tigers
World Series: Cardinals over Angels
Let's see how much more accurate these are.
AL East:
The first-place team is surprisingly the Orioles, who have a four-game lead over the Blue Jays. It would be nice to see someone besides the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays win this division (well, I don't mind the Rays so much), and this would seem to be the year for one of the others to do it. However, the Yankees and Red Sox are members of the oligopoly, while I don't think any other team in this division is, so until they're eliminated, I can't count either one of them out. This division is packed pretty tightly, so even the teams at the bottom still have a shot. Although losing Masahiro Tanaka would be a huge blow, I stand by my prediction that the Yankees are somehow, someway going to win this division. They're evil. It's what they do. I had the Rays winning a Wild Card spot, but I don't see them pulling that off this year.
AL Central:
The current standings are exactly the same as my predicted final standings, so I'm looking pretty good there. I'll stick with my prediction that the Tigers win the Central, and as for my Wild Card prediction for the Royals, I'll stand by that too. They're close behind the Mariners in the race for the stupid second Wild Card spot that nobody wanted, so I think they can still do it. I hope they do.
AL West:
This division has the team with the best record in baseball, the Oakland Athletics. The A's seem to be going all in this year, trading away their top two prospects for starting pitching. After years of frequent-but-forgettable playoff performances, it seems that they're ready to make this year special. I would love to see it, but there's just one problem: They're not part of the oligopoly, so they won't win the World Series, as much as I'd love to see it happen. The Angels are close behind the A's, and they're sort of a fringe oligopoly member, so I could see them possibly winning the World Series, but I wouldn't particularly be interested in that. I picked the Rangers to win this division, but after a bargeload of injuries, their season's already a lost cause. I'm going to amend my prediction to Oakland winning the division and Anaheim winning the Wild Card. The surprising Mariners will fall short.
NL East:
This is pretty much a two-team race between the Nationals and Braves. As a National rooter, I'd like to see them do it, but they're not part of the oligopoly, unlike the Braves. I had the Nats winning the division and the Braves the Wild Card, and I guess I'll stick by that.
NL Central:
I predicted the Brewers would finish in last place, but they're actually in first, surprisingly. I don't think they're for real though, and don't expect them to make the postseason. I also made the out-of-left-field prediction that the Cubs would win the Wild Card, and I think it's safe to say I look like a fool on that one, as they currently sit in last place and have already punted on this season. No biggie. I figured I'd be wrong. I just wanted bragging rights in case I was right. I predicted that the Cardinals would win the division, and even when they struggled early on, I said they were going to do it. I stand by that prediction, because the Cardinals are pure evil and always find a way. Though this is a four-team race on paper, I say it's inevitable that St. Louis takes it and the Brewers, Reds and Pirates are all left out in the cold.
NL West:
This is another two-team race between the Giants and Dodgers. Rivalry! I had the Dodgers winning the division and the Giants in second place. I stand by that prediction, although I'll amend it to have the Giants winning a Wild Card spot.
So here are my amended predictions at the All-Star Break:
NL Wild Card: Giants over Braves
AL Wild Card: Angels over Royals
NLDS1: Cardinals over Giants
NLDS2: Dodgers over Nationals
ALDS1: Angels over Athletics
ALDS2: Tigers over Yankees
NLCS: Cardinals over Dodgers
ALCS: Angels over Tigers
World Series: Cardinals over Angels
Let's see how much more accurate these are.
Monday, October 21, 2013
The Oligopoly Continues
It would be funny if it weren't so predictable. I've been predicting a Cardinals-Red Sox World Series for a while now, and whaddaya know? I was absolutely correct. The 2005 Chicago White Sox will remain the last non-media favorite to win the World Series for yet another year.
My streak of the team I root for in the World Series losing is going to continue as well, since I'm rooting for both teams to lose. Technically, if I could decide who wins, I'd pick the Red Sox because they've won it less recently, but I still loathe them, so that wouldn't really count as a victory. Rooting against someone less is not the same as rooting for someone.
I quit following the NBA and the NFL because I felt that they were essentially media-favorite oligopolies. I tend to hate media favorite teams, since they get shoved down your throat more than others, and I don't like feeling as though someone's telling me who I'm supposed to support. Even a lot of casual fans buy into it, and decide that certain teams aren't interesting because "they have no history," or they just aren't glamorous enough for them.
I mean, look at the NBA. Which teams ever win championships? Heat (a city with famous beaches that's attractive to stars), Lakers (the NBA's glamor team), Celtics (the team with the hallowed history), Bulls (big city Chicago), Spurs (the perfect team to counter the league's "bad boy" reputation), Pistons (big market for blacks, the same demographic that dominates the league). Maybe once in a while some big-market oddballs like the Rockets and Mavericks overcome the odds, but it's pretty predictable otherwise. I'd venture to say that the 76ers and Knicks would also be members of the NBA's oligopoly circle, and the league wouldn't have a problem with either of those teams winning a title. Maybe the Clippers and Nets too, if they had the right players. Bottom line is, after I realized that new and interesting teams pretty much never won, I decided to stop following the NBA, and I've never regretted it.
What about the NFL? Once again, it's very oligopolistic. I once decided there were five teams I hated: the Patriots (the model franchise that does everything right), Steelers (the standard-bearers of old-school football), Giants (New York, baby!), Cowboys (America's Team!) and Packers (the team with the hallowed history). There were also some teams I had a second-tier hatred for, namely the 49ers (the team that used to be the NFL's model of perfection) and the Jets (I still hate New York, although the Jets are more like the NFL's biggest pity party). Basically, they were the teams the media were most likely to love, and with that love usually came previous success that they didn't need more of. Somehow, like magic, one of those teams won the Super Bowl nearly every year.
OK, OK, I know you're going to dispute that, and rightly so. What about the Ravens last year? Or the Saints in 2009? Or the Colts in 2006? Or the Buccaneers, Rams, Broncos...yes, yes. I get it. Really, I feel like the oligopoly is a recent development. After the Patriots won their second, that's when it really began. I was happy for the Colts when they won it, but because I was rooting for the Bears, it was hard to enjoy it too much. The Saints and Ravens won it after I stopped following the NFL (due to loss of interest rather than conscious choice), and in between, some of the teams I loathe won it. Maybe we could say that every three years or so the NFL ends up with a decent champion, but I don't like the game enough to endure those two years in between.
But there was always baseball. Baseball wasn't like those other sports. The big dogs could spend a ton of money and get all the hype, but in the postseason it was anybody's game. If you liked underdogs, baseball gave you a chance!
At least, that's how it used to be. As I outlined here, there's now a media-favorite oligopoly in baseball too, perhaps as a punishment for me getting to see the White Sox win it (hey, it coincides with it, who knows?). Which teams are members of the oligopoly? Allow me to list them:
Yankees (baseball's "hallowed history" team)
Red Sox (another obvious one)
Cardinals (the media looooooooves to talk about what a model organization they are)
Phillies (the City of Brotherly Love is right in the shadow of New York)
Giants (they have a history in New York, and a rivalry with another member of the oligopoly...)
Dodgers (the glamor team)
Braves (I'm not totally sure of this one, but I'm pretty sure they're a member)
Mets (New York gives instant marketability)
The Cubs are also a media favorite, but I'm starting to wonder if for narrative purposes, they'll ever be able to win the World Series. The story of the Cubs' inability to win the World Series has become such a big part of baseball lore that it's almost hard to imagine baseball without it.
So am I saying that any team outside of this select group will never win the World Series? Well...I like to be optimistic and hope that this whole oligopoly thing is just a period baseball is going through, and that it will end soon. Like next year soon. Until it does though, I'm going to be skeptical of any team outside this group's chances. It's just my way of cushioning the blow of disappointment. Eight years of this crap has taken its toll on me.
My streak of the team I root for in the World Series losing is going to continue as well, since I'm rooting for both teams to lose. Technically, if I could decide who wins, I'd pick the Red Sox because they've won it less recently, but I still loathe them, so that wouldn't really count as a victory. Rooting against someone less is not the same as rooting for someone.
I quit following the NBA and the NFL because I felt that they were essentially media-favorite oligopolies. I tend to hate media favorite teams, since they get shoved down your throat more than others, and I don't like feeling as though someone's telling me who I'm supposed to support. Even a lot of casual fans buy into it, and decide that certain teams aren't interesting because "they have no history," or they just aren't glamorous enough for them.
I mean, look at the NBA. Which teams ever win championships? Heat (a city with famous beaches that's attractive to stars), Lakers (the NBA's glamor team), Celtics (the team with the hallowed history), Bulls (big city Chicago), Spurs (the perfect team to counter the league's "bad boy" reputation), Pistons (big market for blacks, the same demographic that dominates the league). Maybe once in a while some big-market oddballs like the Rockets and Mavericks overcome the odds, but it's pretty predictable otherwise. I'd venture to say that the 76ers and Knicks would also be members of the NBA's oligopoly circle, and the league wouldn't have a problem with either of those teams winning a title. Maybe the Clippers and Nets too, if they had the right players. Bottom line is, after I realized that new and interesting teams pretty much never won, I decided to stop following the NBA, and I've never regretted it.
What about the NFL? Once again, it's very oligopolistic. I once decided there were five teams I hated: the Patriots (the model franchise that does everything right), Steelers (the standard-bearers of old-school football), Giants (New York, baby!), Cowboys (America's Team!) and Packers (the team with the hallowed history). There were also some teams I had a second-tier hatred for, namely the 49ers (the team that used to be the NFL's model of perfection) and the Jets (I still hate New York, although the Jets are more like the NFL's biggest pity party). Basically, they were the teams the media were most likely to love, and with that love usually came previous success that they didn't need more of. Somehow, like magic, one of those teams won the Super Bowl nearly every year.
OK, OK, I know you're going to dispute that, and rightly so. What about the Ravens last year? Or the Saints in 2009? Or the Colts in 2006? Or the Buccaneers, Rams, Broncos...yes, yes. I get it. Really, I feel like the oligopoly is a recent development. After the Patriots won their second, that's when it really began. I was happy for the Colts when they won it, but because I was rooting for the Bears, it was hard to enjoy it too much. The Saints and Ravens won it after I stopped following the NFL (due to loss of interest rather than conscious choice), and in between, some of the teams I loathe won it. Maybe we could say that every three years or so the NFL ends up with a decent champion, but I don't like the game enough to endure those two years in between.
But there was always baseball. Baseball wasn't like those other sports. The big dogs could spend a ton of money and get all the hype, but in the postseason it was anybody's game. If you liked underdogs, baseball gave you a chance!
At least, that's how it used to be. As I outlined here, there's now a media-favorite oligopoly in baseball too, perhaps as a punishment for me getting to see the White Sox win it (hey, it coincides with it, who knows?). Which teams are members of the oligopoly? Allow me to list them:
Yankees (baseball's "hallowed history" team)
Red Sox (another obvious one)
Cardinals (the media looooooooves to talk about what a model organization they are)
Phillies (the City of Brotherly Love is right in the shadow of New York)
Giants (they have a history in New York, and a rivalry with another member of the oligopoly...)
Dodgers (the glamor team)
Braves (I'm not totally sure of this one, but I'm pretty sure they're a member)
Mets (New York gives instant marketability)
The Cubs are also a media favorite, but I'm starting to wonder if for narrative purposes, they'll ever be able to win the World Series. The story of the Cubs' inability to win the World Series has become such a big part of baseball lore that it's almost hard to imagine baseball without it.
So am I saying that any team outside of this select group will never win the World Series? Well...I like to be optimistic and hope that this whole oligopoly thing is just a period baseball is going through, and that it will end soon. Like next year soon. Until it does though, I'm going to be skeptical of any team outside this group's chances. It's just my way of cushioning the blow of disappointment. Eight years of this crap has taken its toll on me.
Thursday, October 3, 2013
The Pittsburgh Pirates Are Doomed
Blunt title? Sure it is. But I figured I might as well get straight to the point.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a great story all season. Indeed, they're almost certainly the team I've most enjoyed following this year. I attended my first ballgame in 1993 and became a true baseball fan in 1995, and only now am I finally seeing a Pirate team that has a winning record and is participating in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has had one of those special seasons that fans cherish for a lifetime. As cool as it would be to see this team go all the way to the World Series and even (dare I suggest?) win it, it has absolutely no chance of happening.
The reason is because the roadblock standing in their way is that notorious crusher of dreams, the St. Louis Cardinals. So what? While the Cardinals are certainly favored on paper, we all know that in a short series, anything can happen, right? Theoretically, yes. When the Cardinals are involved though, the normal rules don't apply.
At the risk of sounding solipsistic, I ought to explain the grand unifying theory that underpins my thinking.
I'm from the Chicago area, and I like both Chicago teams. Before 2005, both Chicago teams held their leagues' respective longest World Series title droughts, as you probably know if you're reading this. When the White Sox had their great season in 2005, it was natural for Chicago fans to expect the worst. After all, our teams had a history of blowing it. As I watched the Sox' playoff run, I said to myself, "Boy, if only I could see the Sox win this one, I'd accept 15 years of baseball disappointment." I'm not sure how sincere I was. It's not like the baseball spirits and I signed any sort of contract. Still, it's hard to argue with subsequent developments.
The 2005 White Sox indeed won the World Series, and since then, not a single team I've rooted for in the World Series has won it. No joke. Not one. Admittedly, I was happy for the 2008 Phillies and the 2010 Giants, but I was rooting for their opponents both years.
Not only that, but every team that's won it since then has been a media favorite. We've seen the Cardinals, standard-bearer of all that's good and classy about the game, whose fans are just so doggone loyal and nice (according to the media, who, as usual, have it completely wrong); the Red Sox, the longsuffering characters whose fans are more passionate and knowledgeable than any other (again, sez the media); the Phillies, who snapped a (OMG!) 25-year major sports championship drought for their city in 2008 (Cleveland fans must have been weeping for them); the Yankees, baseball's most hallowed franchise, and one that needs to win the World Series periodically to save the sport from going down the toilet (according to the media and ignorant fans); and the Giants, from the beautiful left-wing utopia of San Francisco, whose history dates back to New York, and who form half of a historic rivalry with the Dodgers, another grand old franchise.
During this time, the Cardinals in particular have demonstrated a knack for stomping on any non-media favorite that looks like a potential champion.
In 2006, an injury-riddled 83-win Cardinal team squeaked into the playoffs by virtue of a weak division, and the first team they beat was the title-less Padres. No one was really expecting anything from that Padre team, but it would've been cool if they'd won it, of course. After beating the Mets (who were a media favorite and not that great of a story), they met the Tigers in the World Series. Now the Tigers, they were a great story. They had just come through the worst period of perennial losing in their history, which reached its lowest point with 119 losses in 2003. Three years later, here they were in the World Series! What a great addition to the pantheon of champs they would've been! Unfortunately, the Cardinals beat them in five error-filled games, a pathetic end to a great season.
In 2009 the Cards faced the Dodgers, but the Dodgers swept them. My theory is intact though, because not only were the Dodgers a media favorite, they had also had no compelling story. They had the loathsome Manny Ramirez too, which made it impossible for me to root for them. So the Cardinals can lose if they face an unlikable media favorite.
2011 was the worst of them all. The Cards upset the powerhouse Phillies in the first round, then faced the title-less Brewers. The Brewers were a small-market club that had gone all in that year, since Prince Fielder was an impending free agent, and they knew they wouldn't have the resources to bring him back. They also had a fun collection of personalities, and an engaging esprit de corps, which would've made a beautiful chapter in MLB championship history. But of course, they were facing the Cardinals, so you know what happened.
Their World Series opponent was a title-starved Ranger team that had a terrific blend of vets and franchise icons. They would've been the perfect team to hoist Texas' first World Series trophy, and they almost did, except for the fact that the Cardinals made two incredible late-game comebacks against them in Game 6, and then won Game 7. At that point, I knew there was something very real about this evil force backing the Cardinals.
In 2012 this new second Wild Card playoff format that nobody wanted was added. Under the old system, the Cardinals would've missed the playoffs, but instead, a slot was theirs, and they took full advantage of their illegitimate participation by beating the Braves in the one-game "play-in."
Next up were the Washington Nationals, making the city's first postseason appearance in 79 years, and the franchise's first since 1981, when they were the Expos. Once a doormat, they were now the top seed. What a potentially great story! In the deciding Game 5 of the Division Series, the Nats jumped out to an early 6-0 lead. However, never for a minute did I think they could coast the rest of the way, because these were the Cardinals they were facing. I stopped following the game in the late innings when the score was 6-4 Nationals, because at that point I knew the result was inevitable. I checked MLB's website later and when I saw it previewing the Cardinals-Giants NLCS my reaction was a frustrated "how is it possible that I knew that was going to happen?" As I found out later, a four-run ninth killed Washington's season. With the Cardinals, that's how it always goes.
Those Cardinals did eventually lose to the Giants, but since the Giants were just a rerun from two years earlier, there was nothing interesting about them. Therefore, it was possible for them to beat the Cardinals.
So you can see what the Pirates are up against. Their scrappy underdog status assures that they'll become another notch on the belt of the St. Louis Dream Squashers, and there's nothing they can do about it. For what it's worth, Pirate fans, I truly feel bad that your incredible season is going to have to end like this.
In my previous post I guaranteed that the Cardinals would win it all, but I suppose there are other possibilities. As previously mentioned, as long as a media favorite is facing them, the Cardinals are beatable. Among playoff participants, I would consider the Red Sox, Braves and Dodgers to be media favorites as well, so there are four potential champions. Since the Dodgers are the only one of those teams I haven't seen win the World Series, I guess they're my only hope of seeing a new team win it. The Rays, Athletics, Tigers and Pirates don't have the media blessing.
Some of you probably think my theory is a bunch of baseless hokum. I know it looks that way, but to me, it sure feels real. I would love, love, to see it proven wrong, believe me. Until it is though, I'm going to stand by my belief that the media's ring of favorites has a monopoly on World Series titles.
Ah...the sadness of lost hope.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a great story all season. Indeed, they're almost certainly the team I've most enjoyed following this year. I attended my first ballgame in 1993 and became a true baseball fan in 1995, and only now am I finally seeing a Pirate team that has a winning record and is participating in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has had one of those special seasons that fans cherish for a lifetime. As cool as it would be to see this team go all the way to the World Series and even (dare I suggest?) win it, it has absolutely no chance of happening.
The reason is because the roadblock standing in their way is that notorious crusher of dreams, the St. Louis Cardinals. So what? While the Cardinals are certainly favored on paper, we all know that in a short series, anything can happen, right? Theoretically, yes. When the Cardinals are involved though, the normal rules don't apply.
At the risk of sounding solipsistic, I ought to explain the grand unifying theory that underpins my thinking.
I'm from the Chicago area, and I like both Chicago teams. Before 2005, both Chicago teams held their leagues' respective longest World Series title droughts, as you probably know if you're reading this. When the White Sox had their great season in 2005, it was natural for Chicago fans to expect the worst. After all, our teams had a history of blowing it. As I watched the Sox' playoff run, I said to myself, "Boy, if only I could see the Sox win this one, I'd accept 15 years of baseball disappointment." I'm not sure how sincere I was. It's not like the baseball spirits and I signed any sort of contract. Still, it's hard to argue with subsequent developments.
The 2005 White Sox indeed won the World Series, and since then, not a single team I've rooted for in the World Series has won it. No joke. Not one. Admittedly, I was happy for the 2008 Phillies and the 2010 Giants, but I was rooting for their opponents both years.
Not only that, but every team that's won it since then has been a media favorite. We've seen the Cardinals, standard-bearer of all that's good and classy about the game, whose fans are just so doggone loyal and nice (according to the media, who, as usual, have it completely wrong); the Red Sox, the longsuffering characters whose fans are more passionate and knowledgeable than any other (again, sez the media); the Phillies, who snapped a (OMG!) 25-year major sports championship drought for their city in 2008 (Cleveland fans must have been weeping for them); the Yankees, baseball's most hallowed franchise, and one that needs to win the World Series periodically to save the sport from going down the toilet (according to the media and ignorant fans); and the Giants, from the beautiful left-wing utopia of San Francisco, whose history dates back to New York, and who form half of a historic rivalry with the Dodgers, another grand old franchise.
During this time, the Cardinals in particular have demonstrated a knack for stomping on any non-media favorite that looks like a potential champion.
In 2006, an injury-riddled 83-win Cardinal team squeaked into the playoffs by virtue of a weak division, and the first team they beat was the title-less Padres. No one was really expecting anything from that Padre team, but it would've been cool if they'd won it, of course. After beating the Mets (who were a media favorite and not that great of a story), they met the Tigers in the World Series. Now the Tigers, they were a great story. They had just come through the worst period of perennial losing in their history, which reached its lowest point with 119 losses in 2003. Three years later, here they were in the World Series! What a great addition to the pantheon of champs they would've been! Unfortunately, the Cardinals beat them in five error-filled games, a pathetic end to a great season.
In 2009 the Cards faced the Dodgers, but the Dodgers swept them. My theory is intact though, because not only were the Dodgers a media favorite, they had also had no compelling story. They had the loathsome Manny Ramirez too, which made it impossible for me to root for them. So the Cardinals can lose if they face an unlikable media favorite.
2011 was the worst of them all. The Cards upset the powerhouse Phillies in the first round, then faced the title-less Brewers. The Brewers were a small-market club that had gone all in that year, since Prince Fielder was an impending free agent, and they knew they wouldn't have the resources to bring him back. They also had a fun collection of personalities, and an engaging esprit de corps, which would've made a beautiful chapter in MLB championship history. But of course, they were facing the Cardinals, so you know what happened.
Their World Series opponent was a title-starved Ranger team that had a terrific blend of vets and franchise icons. They would've been the perfect team to hoist Texas' first World Series trophy, and they almost did, except for the fact that the Cardinals made two incredible late-game comebacks against them in Game 6, and then won Game 7. At that point, I knew there was something very real about this evil force backing the Cardinals.
In 2012 this new second Wild Card playoff format that nobody wanted was added. Under the old system, the Cardinals would've missed the playoffs, but instead, a slot was theirs, and they took full advantage of their illegitimate participation by beating the Braves in the one-game "play-in."
Next up were the Washington Nationals, making the city's first postseason appearance in 79 years, and the franchise's first since 1981, when they were the Expos. Once a doormat, they were now the top seed. What a potentially great story! In the deciding Game 5 of the Division Series, the Nats jumped out to an early 6-0 lead. However, never for a minute did I think they could coast the rest of the way, because these were the Cardinals they were facing. I stopped following the game in the late innings when the score was 6-4 Nationals, because at that point I knew the result was inevitable. I checked MLB's website later and when I saw it previewing the Cardinals-Giants NLCS my reaction was a frustrated "how is it possible that I knew that was going to happen?" As I found out later, a four-run ninth killed Washington's season. With the Cardinals, that's how it always goes.
Those Cardinals did eventually lose to the Giants, but since the Giants were just a rerun from two years earlier, there was nothing interesting about them. Therefore, it was possible for them to beat the Cardinals.
So you can see what the Pirates are up against. Their scrappy underdog status assures that they'll become another notch on the belt of the St. Louis Dream Squashers, and there's nothing they can do about it. For what it's worth, Pirate fans, I truly feel bad that your incredible season is going to have to end like this.
In my previous post I guaranteed that the Cardinals would win it all, but I suppose there are other possibilities. As previously mentioned, as long as a media favorite is facing them, the Cardinals are beatable. Among playoff participants, I would consider the Red Sox, Braves and Dodgers to be media favorites as well, so there are four potential champions. Since the Dodgers are the only one of those teams I haven't seen win the World Series, I guess they're my only hope of seeing a new team win it. The Rays, Athletics, Tigers and Pirates don't have the media blessing.
Some of you probably think my theory is a bunch of baseless hokum. I know it looks that way, but to me, it sure feels real. I would love, love, to see it proven wrong, believe me. Until it is though, I'm going to stand by my belief that the media's ring of favorites has a monopoly on World Series titles.
Ah...the sadness of lost hope.
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