Who Was the Lowest Drafted Signee to Make the Majors?

Drafting in professional sports, as we all know, is an inexact science. History is littered with "can't-miss" prospects who did just that, and unheralded players who rose to stardom. The general trend, however, is in the direction of higher draft picks succeeding more often than lower ones.

The vast majority of players drafted in baseball never make it to the majors, and some choose not to play professional baseball at all. But of those late-rounders who ended up signing with the teams that drafted them, which ones actually defied the odds and made it to the big leagues?

That was the question on my mind when I compiled the following list. I went year by year to find out who the lowest drafted signee to make the majors was. There are some cases where a future major leaguer was drafted later than the player on the list, but he's disqualified because he didn't sign that year.

	Name	Team	Round	WAR
1965	Otis Thornton	Astros	68	-0.2
1966	Rusty Torres	Yankees	54	-0.5
1967	Roger Hambright	Yankees	67	0.0
1968	Tim Plodinec	Cardinals	33	-0.1
1969	Al Cowens	Royals	75	15.3
1970	Bake McBride	Cardinals	37	22.7
1971	Keith Hernandez	Cardinals	42	60.4
1972	Butch Alberts	Pirates	28	-0.1
1973	Eric Rasmussen	Cardinals	32	5.1
1974	Bobby Cuellar	Rangers	29	0.2
1975	LaRue Washington	Rangers	23	-0.2
1976	Jay Howell	Reds	31	15.0
1977	Neil Fiala	Cardinals	32	0.0
1978	Vance Law	Pirates	39	10.6
1979	Joel Skinner	Pirates	37	0.0
1980	Walt Terrell	Rangers	33	10.7
1981	Glen Cook	Rangers	24	-1.2
1982	Mike York	Yankees	40	-0.7
1983	Joe Klink	Mets	36	0.6
1984	Tom Gilles	Yankees	47	0.0
1985	Rico Rossy	Orioles	33	1.4
1986	Doug Linton	Blue Jays	43	-0.7
1987	Jeff Conine	Royals	58	19.5
1988	Mike Piazza	Dodgers	62	59.6
1989	Mike Garcia	Tigers	55	-0.6
1990	Danny Young	Astros	83	-0.4
1991	Charles Gipson	Mariners	63	0.8
1992	Anthony Chavez	Angels	50	0.4
1993	Jason Maxwell	Cubs	74	-0.1
1994	Jose Santiago	Royals	70	1.2
1995	Gabe Kapler	Tigers	57	8.7
1996	Travis Phelps	Devil Rays	89	0.8
1997	Orlando Hudson	Blue Jays	43	30.9
1998	Scott Atchison	Mariners	49	3.5
1999	Jason Botts	Rangers	46	0.3
2000	Anthony Ferrari	Expos	44	0.0

As one quickly observes via the WAR column, most of these guys didn't have very noteworthy careers. Only eleven finished their careers with more than five wins above replacement, as many as finished with a negative value. Still, you have to hand it to these guys, proving every doubter wrong and outplaying the apparent better choices. One of them, Mike Piazza, is even in the Hall of Fame, and the WAR leader is Keith Hernandez, who has a good case of his own.

I stopped the list at 2000 because I wanted to give any late-drafted guys who might have a late-career major league debut a chance to get to the Show. I may update this thing in the future.

Since this'll probably be my last post of the year, I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

Annual Updates 2018

After an anticlimactic postseason that saw the Red Sox win it again (and where my predictions were a big pile of LOL), it's time for the annual updates to our ongoing lists.

Enjoy!

Rookie of the Year Facts
The Second Place Award Winners
The Run That Clinched It

Playoff Predictions: 2018 Edition

On what I believe was the first day in Major League history with two tiebreakers played, both teams I was rooting for lost. Needless to say, I'm not terribly thrilled as I write this post. But I have a duty to the baseball community to record these predictions which will almost certainly be wrong so that we can all have a good laugh over them someday. My preseason prediction was a Yankees-Dodgers World Series. Do I stand by that prediction? Let's just take this round by round.

Stupid Wild Card Games That Nobody Wanted

Cubs over Rockies
Yankees over Athletics

While it was fun pulling for the Rockies as they marched to the playoffs, the fact remains that they simply are not a great team. The Cubs have much more depth, and when you throw in the fact that Chicago has home field advantage, they're the easy favorite here. Obviously, anything can happen in one game, but I'm going with what I think is the more likely outcome.

As for the American League, I think the Yankees have just a bit more magic on their side, and I'm not going to bet against them.

Division Series

Brewers over Cubs
Dodgers over Braves
Yankees over Red Sox
Indians over Astros

The way the Brewers have been playing lately, I don't think my beloved Cubs are in a very favorable position if they face them. They've been unbeatable. If you recall, I actually picked them at the beginning of the season to be the surprise division winner, so I'm not always wrong.

I'm taking the Dodgers over the Braves, just because I'm not confident that the Braves are all there yet. The Dodgers have been a lot better in recent postseasons than earlier this decade, and I think they have the be the favorite this year too.

Yankees over the Red Sox? The Red Sox team that won 108 games? Yes, I'm going to make a bold prediction that the juggernaut from Boston is actually overrated and will choke in the first round like the Indians did last year. Besides, this Yankee team ain't exactly Jell-O pudding, with 100 wins of their own.

But wait...I'm also predicting the Indians will beat the powerhouse Astros? Now I'm just loony, right? Two huge first round upsets in the same league? I'll admit that the Astros are a much better team than this year's Indians, but the postseason really is a crapshoot, and I think these Indians could pull it off. They have unfinished business from last year, and they might be just a little more determined than the defending champs.

League Championship Series

Brewers over Dodgers
Indians over Yankees

So it looks like I'm not sticking with my preseason pennant predictions! I have both of them losing in the LCS.

First, the Brewers. I think their momentum has given them the confidence to ride this thing all the way to the World Series. They're playing like a team whose time has come, and despite them beating the Cubs, I have to tip my hat to them. This team looks special.

Indians over the Yankees? Yup. The Indians looked like a team of destiny last year, but the Yankees spoiled the party in the first round. Remember that unfinished business I mentioned above? Yep. It's time for the Indians to get their payback.

World Series

Indians over Brewers

Remember the Cardinals of 2004-06? In 2004, they won 100 games and the pennant, but lost to the Red Sox, who were breaking the once-famous 86-year drought. In 2005, they won 100 games again, but this time they lost in the LCS to the Astros. In 2006, they squeaked into the playoffs by winning a weak division, but unlike the prior two years, they won the whole thing. Go figure.

I'm predicting the Indians to follow a similar pattern: Lose to a team getting a monkey off its back, lose before the World Series, then win the World Series with a team whose record isn't that impressive but played in a weak division. We have the precedent. It's all there for the Indians' taking. Can this be Cleveland's year? That's what I'm going with. And unlike last year, I might even be correct.

So there you have my predictions. Be sure to come back in a month and have a good chuckle at how wrong they were!

Oldest Ringless Players: 2018 Edition

And then there were ten! With the elimination of the Cardinals this afternoon, we now know who our ten postseason teams are, and we can check out this year's edition of the Oldest Ringless Players!

Atlanta Braves: Peter Moylan (b. December 2, 1978)
Boston Red Sox: Brandon Phillips (b. June 28, 1981)
Chicago Cubs: Jorge De La Rosa (b. April 5, 1981)
Cleveland Indians: Rajai Davis (b. October 19, 1980)
Colorado Rockies: Chris Iannetta (b. April 8, 1983)
Houston Astros: Martin Maldonado (b. August 16, 1986)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Rich Hill (b. March 11, 1980)
Milwaukee Brewers: Curtis Granderson (b. March 16, 1981)
New York Yankees: Neil Walker (b. September 10, 1985)
Oakland Athletics: Fernando Rodney (b. March 18, 1977)

This crew feels different than most past editions. Fernando Rodney seems like he's shown up here a lot, but the others, not so much. The Rockies deserve an asterisk, since Seunghwan Oh is older than Iannetta and has never won a Major League World Series, but he's won several Korean Series, so I don't think he should count.

I'll be back with my predictions for the playoffs once we have all the races settled.

Ultimate Number Players: #21-25

It's time for another installment of Ultimate Number Players! In case you've forgotten how this works, the Ultimate Number Player has to have worn a particular uniform number with every stint with every franchise he played for, and he must be (in my judgment) the best player to have played with the most franchises wearing that number. We've done them all from 1 to 20, so now we'll do another block of five.

Ultimate #21: Warren Spahn

It's hard to find a good photo of Spahn in a Giants uniform with his #21 visible. The closest thing I've found is grainy black-and-white footage from the infamous Marichal-Roseboro brawl where the back of his jersey can be seen among the chaos. For the photo collage, I chose the only other qualifying player with three franchises: Mike Hargrove. I know this looks terrible compared to some of the others I've made, but it was the best I could do.

Ultimate #22: Walt Weiss

Thank goodness he wore #22 for one season with the Athletics before embarking on his journey around the majors.

Ultimate #23: Ted Simmons

Several 23s had three franchises, but Simmons was by far the best of the lot.

Ultimate #24: Willie Mays

24 proved to be a difficult number to keep one's entire career, but the greatest player ever to wear it takes the prize here with his two franchises.

Ultimate #25: Jim Thome

I don't know how he did it, but Thome bounced around a ton, somehow always holding on to the coveted #25. This collage is a thing of beauty in my eyes.

Half the Guys Are Gone

For today's post, I''m just going to share some data I've compiled and you can make of it what you will.

At what point are half the players on a team deceased? If the total number of players (let's call it variable n) is odd, it'd be when the number of deceased players is equal to (n + 1 / 2). If you have an even number of players, it's when the number of deceased players is (n / 2). I looked at the years that were multiples of ten between 1910 and 1960 to see which players marked the halfway point of the players being deceased for each of them, and also how long it took to occur. For a couple from 1960, they didn't even reach that level till earlier this year. I also looked at how it compared to the average age of the team to see how strong the correlation was.

1910	Name	Death Date	Years	Avg Age
Pittsburg	Howie Camnitz	3/2/1960	50	28.3
Philadelphia (AL)	Jack Coombs	4/15/1957	47	27.6
Cincinnati	Frank Roth	3/27/1955	45	26.2
Cleveland	Heinie Berger	2/10/1954	44	28.2
Boston (AL)	Bunny Madden	1/20/1954	44	25.5
Chicago (AL)	Fred Payne	1/16/1954	44	27.1
Brooklyn	Rube Dessau	5/6/1952	42	25.9
New York (NL)	Doc Crandall	8/17/1951	41	25.7
Washington	Doc Ralston	8/29/1950	40	27.9
Boston (NL)	Jim Riley	3/25/1949	39	26.5
Detroit	Marv Peasley	12/27/1948	38	27.8
New York (AL)	Walter Blair	8/20/1948	38	27.4
St. Louis (NL)	Rebel Oakes	3/1/1948	38	26.4
Chicago (NL)	Mordecai Brown	2/14/1948	38	29.0
St. Louis (AL)	Hub Northen	10/1/1947	37	28.2
Philadelphia (NL)	Kitty Bransfield	5/1/1947	37	29.0
MLB AVG			41.4	27.3

r = -0.18

1920	Name	Death Date	Years	Avg Age
Pittsburgh	Billy Southworth	11/15/1969	49	27.6
Philadelphia (AL)	Chick Galloway	11/7/1969	49	24.7
New York (AL)	Rip Collins	5/27/1968	48	27.8
Cleveland	Ray Caldwell	8/17/1967	47	29.3
Brooklyn	Doug Baird	6/13/1967	47	30.1
Chicago (NL)	Hippo Vaughn	5/29/1966	46	29.3
Philadelphia (NL)	Gene Paulette	2/8/1966	46	28.9
Washington	Bill Hollahan	11/27/1965	45	27.2
Cincinnati	Jimmy Ring	7/6/1965	45	29.1
Boston (AL)	Wally Schang	3/6/1965	45	28.1
Detroit	Oscar Stanage	11/11/1964	44	28.9
St. Louis (AL)	Roy Sanders	7/8/1963	43	28.5
Chicago (AL)	Dickey Kerr	5/4/1963	43	29.4
Boston (NL)	Ray Powell	10/16/1962	42	27.9
St. Louis (NL)	Burt Shotton	7/29/1962	42	26.4
New York (NL)	Frank Snyder	1/5/1962	42	26.9
MLB AVG			45.2	28.1

r = -0.06

1930	Name	Death Date	Years	Avg Age
New York (NL)	Hughie Critz	1/10/1980	50	27.2
Cleveland	Milt Shoffner	1/19/1978	48	27.3
Boston (NL)	Lance Richbourg	9/10/1975	45	29.6
Cincinnati	Marty Callaghan	6/23/1975	45	29.6
New York (AL)	Ownie Carroll	6/8/1975	45	27.0
Detroit	Jimmy Shevlin	10/30/1974	44	26.7
Pittsburgh	Steve Swetonic	4/22/1974	44	26.7
Chicago (AL)	Bennie Tate	10/27/1973	43	27.4
St. Louis (NL)	Frankie Frisch	3/12/1973	43	29.6
Chicago (NL)	Danny Taylor	10/11/1972	42	29.4
Boston (AL)	Charlie Berry	9/6/1972	42	28.6
St. Louis (AL)	General Crowder	4/3/1972	42	28.7
Brooklyn	Ray Phelps	7/7/1971	41	28.9
Philadelphia (NL)	Tripp Sigman	3/8/1971	41	27.1
Washington	Bobby Burke	2/8/1971	41	29.1
Philadelphia (AL)	Pinky Higgins	3/21/1969	39	28.7
MLB AVG			43.4	28.2

r = -0.35

1940	Name	Death Date	Years	Avg Age
Boston (NL)	Hank Majeski	8/9/1991	51	26.3
Philadelphia (AL)	Wally Moses	10/10/1990	50	26.9
New York (NL)	Mickey Witek	8/24/1990	50	28.7
Philadelphia (NL)	Neb Stewart	6/8/1990	50	27.4
St. Louis (NL)	Creepy Crespi	3/1/1990	50	27.1
New York (AL)	Lefty Gomez	2/17/1989	49	28.1
Chicago (NL)	Zeke Bonura	3/9/1987	47	28.9
Cincinnati	Vince DiMaggio	10/3/1986	46	28.8
Detroit	Hank Greenberg	9/4/1986	46	29.4
St. Louis (AL)	George Susce	2/25/1986	46	28.2
Washington	Sam West	11/23/1985	45	26.8
Boston (AL)	Joe Glenn	5/6/1985	45	28.1
Cleveland	Hank Helf	10/27/1984	44	26.7
Brooklyn	Gus Mancuso	10/26/1984	44	28.4
Chicago (AL)	Joe Kuhel	2/26/1984	44	29.4
Pittsburgh	Ed Leip	11/24/1983	43	27.6
MLB AVG			46.9	27.9

r = -0.31

1950	Name	Death Date	Years	Avg Age
Washington	Sandy Consuegra	11/16/2005	55	28.6
St. Louis (AL)	Ribs Raney	7/7/2003	53	25.5
New York (AL)	Joe Ostrowski	1/3/2003	53	29.2
Chicago (NL)	Harry Chiti	1/31/2002	52	27.5
Boston (AL)	Bob Gillespie	11/4/2001	51	29.8
New York (NL)	Bill Rigney	2/20/2001	51	27.0
St. Louis (NL)	Tom Poholsky	1/6/2001	51	29.1
Boston (NL)	Willard Marshall	11/5/2000	50	29.2
Chicago (AL)	John Perkovich	9/16/2000	50	28.4
Philadelphia (NL)	Ken Heintzelman	8/14/2000	50	26.5
Brooklyn	Pee Wee Reese	8/14/1999	49	27.5
Cleveland	Early Wynn	4/4/1999	49	29.2
Philadelphia (AL)	Ben Guintini	12/2/1998	48	31.2
Detroit	Hal Newhouser	11/10/1998	48	28.2
Pittsburgh	Stan Rojek	7/9/1997	47	28.6
Cincinnati	Bobby Adams	2/13/1997	47	27.5
MLB AVG			50.3	28.3

r = -0.19

1960	Name	Death Date	Years	Avg Age
Cleveland	Tito Francona	2/13/2018	58	28.2
Los Angeles	Wally Moon	2/9/2018	58	27.7
Detroit	Chico Fernandez	6/11/2016	56	28.6
San Francisco	Jim Davenport	2/18/2016	56	26.8
Kansas City	Ken Johnson	11/21/2015	55	28.3
St. Louis	Ray Sadecki	11/17/2014	54	28.6
Philadelphia	Al Dark	11/13/2014	54	26.1
Chicago (AL)	Gene Freese	6/19/2013	53	30.8
Milwaukee	Stan Lopata	6/15/2013	53	30.0
Boston	Tom Borland	3/2/2013	53	29.0
Chicago (NL)	Ed Bouchee	1/23/2013	53	28.1
Washington	Don Mincher	3/4/2012	52	27.4
New York	Andy Carey	12/15/2011	51	28.1
Pittsburgh	Gino Cimoli	2/12/2011	51	28.6
Baltimore	Al Pilarcik	9/20/2010	50	27.8
Cincinnati	Whitey Lockman	3/17/2009	49	27.3
MLB AVG			53.5	28.2

r = -0.05


The r variable, for anyone unaware, shows the strength of correlation. A negative number, as we see in each of these cases, shows that the higher the number of years until a team reaches the halfway point, the younger the average age of the team is. That's consistent with what we'd expect, but as we can see, the correlation isn't particularly strong in any of these cases. There's no higher than a 35% correlation in any instance, and in some cases it's close to zero.

I'm also not sure why from 1920 to 1930 the average number of years till a team reached the halfway point actually dropped. You'd think we'd see a steady rise, considering the increases in life expectancy over time.

I suppose I'll have to compile the data for more years than just these, to see if we can spot any trends, because six different years isn't exactly the largest sample size. We'll see what comes of that. To be continued? Maybe?

Missed It By That Much

My earlier post about "Interregnum Players" has an interesting variant: Players whose stints with a team include the years before and after a championship, but not the championship years themselves. This happens more often than you might realize, and who has the full list? Baseball Junk Drawer, of course!

Here are the guys who were there on the way up and the way down, but not at the pinnacle. In addition to having played for the franchise in the years bookending a World Series championship, I also made the requirement that they may not have won a World Series with the franchise in question in a different year, though winning one with a different club is acceptable. That's why you'll see a World Series MVP on this list, but no Adam Wainwright.

Name	Years With Team
Doc Marshall	1904, 1906 NYG
Walt Tragesser	1913, 1915-19 BSN
Walter Mueller	1922-24, 1926 PIT
George Puccinelli	1930, 1932 STL
Dixie Walker*	1931, 1933-36 NYY
Charlie Wilson	1932-33, 1935 STL
Red Phillips	1934, 1936 DET
Mike Chartak	1940, 1942 NYY
Ed Levy	1942, 1944 NYY
Rufe Gentry	1943-44, 1946-48 DET
Johnny Gorsica	1940-44, 1946-47 DET
Pinky Higgins	1939-44, 1946 DET
Dick Wakefield	1941, 1943-44, 1946-49 DET
Bud Souchock	1946, 1948 NYY
Bob Darnell	1954, 1956 BRO
Dick Williams	1951-54, 1956 BRO
Humberto Robinson	1955-56, 1958 MLN
Bob Roselli	1955-56, 1958 MLN
Al Jackson	1959, 1961 PIT
Joe Moeller	1962, 1964, 1966-71 LAD
Bart Shirley	1964, 1966, 1968 LAD
Mike Jorgensen	1968, 1970-71, 1980-83 NYM
Gene Garber	1969-70, 1972 PIT
Ray Knight	1974, 1977-81 CIN
Oscar Gamble	1976, 1979-84 NYY
Joe Beckwith	1979-80, 1982-83, 1986 LAD
Manny Mota	1969-80, 1982 LAD
Floyd Rayford	1980, 1982, 1984-87 BAL
Clint Hurdle	1983, 1985, 1987 NYM
Mariano Duncan	1985-87, 1989 LAD
Mike Bielecki	1991-92, 1994, 1996-97 ATL
Terry Pendleton	1991-94, 1996 ATL
Mike Stanley	1992-95, 1997 NYY
Chris Hammond	1993-96, 1998 FLA
Andy Larkin	1996, 1998 FLA
Matt Mantei	1995-96, 1998-99 FLA
Danny Klassen	1998-2000, 2002 ARI
Todd Stottlemyre	1999-2000, 2002 ARI
Bart Miadich	2001, 2003 ANA
Abraham Nunez	2002, 2004 FLA
Sandy Alomar	2001-04, 2006 CHW
Craig Hansen	2005-06, 2008 BOS
David Pauley	2006, 2008 BOS
Chad Moeller	2008, 2010 NYY
Bryan Anderson	2010, 2012 STL
Steven Hill	2010, 2012 STL
Eric Surkamp	2011, 2013 SFG
Nick Noonan*	2013, 2015 SFG
Zac Rosscup*	2013-15, 2017 CHC

Nick Noonan and Zac Rosscup are still active, so it's theoretically possible that they could win a World Series with their respective franchises. I didn't look into the 2017 Astros, since you really can't determine whether someone belongs on this list until a team is no longer defending its title.

The only other asterisked player is Dixie Walker, who missed out on the 1932 Yankees' season. I put him on this list despite the fact that he briefly played with the 1936 champions, because they got rid of him early in the season, and I doubt he got a share of the World Series money.

It's true that some of these guys were in the dugout when their teams won, either as coaches or injured players, but not getting to participate in any game itself during the season has to sting just a little.

The Pythagorean Pennant

The game isn't played on paper. This we all know. But that doesn't stop us from asking whether the results we see were the ones we should have expected.

One concept that has gained popularity over the years in advanced sports analysis is the concept of Pythagorean Won-Lost Record. For those unfamiliar, Pythagorean Won-Lost Record uses a formula to determine the number of wins and losses a team should be expected to have based on the number of runs scored versus runs allowed. Few teams play precisely to their Pythagorean expectations, but most fall within three games of it. There are always, however, teams that wildly exceed or fall short of their expectations, and in a pennant race, those games can be the difference between a trip to the World Series and an early winter break.

Before the divisional play era, only one team from each league made it to the postseason. Based on Pythagorean W-L, how often did we see the World Series matchup that should've been expected? The chart below shows who won the Pythagorean pennant each year during that era. Teams marked with red are different than the actual winners, and boxes marked with blue are ones where tiebreakers would've had to be played to determine the winner.

	NL	AL
1903	Pittsburg Pirates (86-54)	Boston Americans (90-48)
1905	New York Giants (105-48)	Chicago White Sox (97-55)
1906	Chicago Cubs (115-37)	Cleveland Naps (98-55)
1907	Chicago Cubs (102-50)	Detroit Tigers (93-57)
1908	New York Giants (101-53)	Cleveland Naps (92-62)
1909	Chicago Cubs (109-44)	Philadelphia Athletics (102-51)
1910	Chicago Cubs (101-53)	Philadelphia Athletics (103-47)
1911	New York Giants (99-54)	Philadelphia Athletics (99-52)
1912	New York Giants (100-51)	Boston Red Sox (102-50)
1913	New York Giants (95-57)	Philadelphia Athletics (97-56)
1914	Boston Braves (89-64)	Philadelphia Athletics (99-53)
1915	Philadelphia Phillies (92-60)	Chicago White Sox (100-54)
1916	Brooklyn Robins (92-62)	Chicago White Sox (90-64)
1917	New York Giants (100-54)	Chicago White Sox (101-53)
1918	Chicago Cubs (83-46)	Boston Red Sox (76-50)
1919	Cincinnati Reds (92-48)	Chicago White Sox (84-56)
1920	Brooklyn Robins/New York Giants (93-61)	Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees (97-57)
1921	New York Giants (95-58)	New York Yankees (96-57)
1922	New York Giants (95-59)	St. Louis Browns (98-56)
1923	New York Giants (92-61)	New York Yankees (95-57)
1924	New York Giants (96-57)	Washington Senators (92-62)
1925	Pittsburgh Pirates (93-60)	Washington Senators (90-61)
1926	St. Louis Cardinals (90-64)	Cleveland Indians (90-64)
1927	Pittsburgh Pirates (92-62)	New York Yankees (109-45)
1928	St. Louis Cardinals (94-60)	Philadelphia Athletics (97-56)
1929	Chicago Cubs (94-58)	Philadelphia Athletics (100-50)
1930	St. Louis Cardinals (94-60)	Washington Senators (95-59)
1931	St. Louis Cardinals (97-57)	New York Yankees (100-53)
1932	Chicago Cubs (86-68)	New York Yankees (99-55)
1933	Chicago Cubs/New York Giants	Washington Senators (93-59)
1934	New York Giants (95-58)	Detroit Tigers (98-56)
1935	Chicago Cubs (101-53)	Detroit Tigers (97-54)
1936	Chicago Cubs (93-61)	New York Yankees (102-51)
1937	Chicago Cubs/New York Giants	New York Yankees (103-51)
1938	Chicago Cubs (88-64)	New York Yankees (97-55)
1939	Cincinnati Reds (95-59)	New York Yankees (111-40)
1940	Cincinnati Reds (96-57)	Detroit Tigers (92-62)
1941	Brooklyn Dodgers (99-55)	New York Yankees (96-58)
1942	St. Louis Cardinals (107-47)	New York Yankees (107-47)
1943	St. Louis Cardinals (101-53)	New York Yankees (92-62)
1944	St. Louis Cardinals (107-47)	St. Louis Browns (88-66)
1945	Chicago Cubs (99-55)	NYY/DET/WSH/SLB
1946	St. Louis Cardinals (97-59)	Boston Red Sox (97-57)
1947	St. Louis Cardinals (91-63)	New York Yankees (100-54)
1948	Boston Braves (93-60)	Cleveland Indians (104-51)
1949	Brooklyn Dodgers (98-56)	Boston Red Sox (97-57)
1950	Brooklyn Dodgers (88-66)	New York Yankees (96-58)
1951	Brooklyn Dodgers (96-61)	New York Yankees (94-60)
1952	Brooklyn Dodgers (94-59)	New York Yankees (95-59)
1953	Brooklyn Dodgers (99-55)	New York Yankees (101-50)
1954	New York Giants (97-57)	Cleveland Indians (104-50)
1955	Brooklyn Dodgers (95-58)	New York Yankees (97-57)
1956	Milwaukee Braves (92-62)	New York Yankees (98-56)
1957	Milwaukee Braves (93-61)	New York Yankees (98-56)
1958	Milwaukee Braves (92-62)	New York Yankees (96-58)
1959	Milwaukee Braves (89-67)	Cleveland Indians (87-67)
1960	Pittsburgh Pirates (92-62)	Chicago White Sox (90-64)
1961	San Francisco Giants (89-65)	New York Yankees (103-59)
1962	San Francisco Giants (100-65)	New York Yankees (94-68)
1963	St. Louis Cardinals (94-68)	New York Yankees (100-61)
1964	Cincinnati Reds (92-70)	Chicago White Sox (99-63)
1965	Cincinnati Reds (93-69)	Minnesota Twins (100-62)
1966	Los Angeles Dodgers (97-65)	Baltimore Orioles (96-64)
1967	St. Louis Cardinals (97-64)	Boston Red Sox (93-69)
1968	St. Louis Cardinals (96-66)	Detroit Tigers (103-59)

It's heartening to see that most years the "correct" team wins.There are some long stretches here of black ink.

It's interesting to note that based on this data, several historical teams could be considered overrated or underrated. Connie Mack's Athletics from the "$100,000 Infield" era should've won five of six pennants, rather than the mere four of five they actually won. Their American League successors should've been the Chicago White Sox, if only they hadn't underperformed. The Red Sox of that era would've been the exceptions to two dynasties, rather than one of their own.

Cleveland could've had an additional four American League pennants in their history had their on-field play matched the on-paper expectations. Napoleon Lajoie wouldn't have gone down in history as one of the best players never to reach the postseason, with two World Series appearances during his time leading the "Naps."

The powerhouse Athletics from 1929-31 would've won only one pennant during that span, but they would've had an additional one in 1928, perhaps giving Ty Cobb a World Series title in his final season.

The National League also sees some teams look more dynastic than reality proved them to be. The Cubs might've  potentially won an astounding six pennants in seven years between 1932 and 1938. Those Cubs always came up short in the World Series, but history should remember them much more favorably than it does.

The Brooklyn Dodgers stole the 1947 pennant from their rivals in St. Louis in Jackie Robinson's debut season, but it appears that they, not the Yankees, should've won five straight pennants between 1949 and 1953. While the Red Sox should've captured the 1949 AL flag, we would've had a Yankees-Dodgers matchup four straight seasons to start the 1950s.

And how about those Milwaukee Braves? That immensely talented club should've won four in a row during the 1956-59 seasons, not just the two they did.

The Koufax-era Dodgers also appear to be overrated, winning pennants only in 1955, when he was a benchwarming rookie, and 1966, when he pitched his arm off in his final season. The Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants are the great forgotten teams of the '60s.

Interregnum Players

Not every player gets to be a part of the championship teams. Some lucky (or unlucky) few do, however, get to join the roster in the aftermath of a championship and skip out just before the next one. In so doing, they become icons of the years in between.

The term I have coined for such a man is an "Interregnum Player." What are the exact criteria?

1. He must not have played for the franchise in question the season they won a World Series (though I do make a slight exception for one player).

2. He must have played for the franchise in question in at least 80% of the seasons between two championships. The Eighty-Percenters are marked with an asterisk below.

Here's the full list, in alphabetical order:

Name	Years With Team
Mike Adamson	1967-1969 BAL
Doug Baker	1988-1990 MIN
Dave Berg*	1998-2001 FLA
Michael Bowden	2008-2012 BOS
Greg Brock*	1982-1986 LAD
Gino Cimoli	1956-1958 BRO/LAD
Donn Clendenon*	1961-1968 PIT
Wilbur Cooper*	1912-1924 PIT
Vic Darensbourg	1998-2002 FLA
Ryan Dempster	1998-2002 FLA
Larry Doyle*	1907-16, 1918-1920 NYG
Bill Drescher	1944-1946 NYY
Jim Dwyer	1988-1990 MIN
Art Fletcher*	1909-1920 NYG
Fred Frankhouse	1927-1930 STL
Jason Giambi*	2002-2008 NYY
Rick Honeycutt*	1983-1987 LAD
Randy Jackson	1956-1958 BRO/LAD
Freddie Lindstrom*	1924-1932 NYG
Jed Lowrie*	2008-2011 BOS
Ryan Ludwick	2007-2010 STL
Don Mattingly*	1982-1995 NYY
Al McBean*	1961-68, 1970 PIT
Bill McGee	1935-1941 STL
Kevin Millar	1998-2002 FLA
Johnny Mize*	1936-1941 STL
John Moses	1988-1990 MIN
Manny Mota*	1969-1980 LAD
Mike Mussina	2001-2008 NYY
Steve Roser	1944-1946 NYY
Brendan Ryan	2007-2010 STL
Jesus Sanchez*	1998-2001 FLA
Roy Sherid	1929-1931 NYY
Ted Simmons*	1968-1980 STL
Mario Soto*	1977-1988 CIN
Don Sutton	1966-1980 LAD
Russ Van Atta	1933-1935 NYY
Preston Wilson	1998-2002 FLA

Some of you are now rightfully pointing out that Don Sutton rejoined the Dodgers for the 1988 season, when they won the World Series, so he technically shouldn't qualify for this list based on the original criteria. However, I decided to make an exception for him, because A. there was a significant gap between his rejoining the Dodgers and his original stint, B. he was released before the end of the 1988 season and didn't get to participate in the World Series, and C. how often do you get a chance to include a guy who fits a 15-year championship gap so precisely? He had to be in here. He might be the most perfect example of the Interregnum Player if not for that technicality.

2018 Predictions

The 2018 season is upon us, and that means it's time to make some predictions. If you recall, last year I predicted a World Series matchup between Los Angeles and Houston, so clearly Baseball Junk Drawer is the place to be if you want the dope. What do I predict for 2018? Let's dive in!


NL WEST

Los Angeles
San Francisco*
Colorado
Arizona
San Diego

NL CENTRAL

Milwaukee
Chicago*
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

NL EAST

Washington
New York
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Miami

AL WEST

Houston
Los Angeles*
Oakland
Seattle
Texas

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Kansas City
Detroit

AL EAST

New York
Boston*
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay


PLAYOFFS:

WILD CARD GAMES

San Francisco over Chicago
Boston over Los Angeles

DIVISIONAL SERIES

Washington over Milwaukee
Los Angeles over San Francisco
Boston over Houston
New York over Cleveland

LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Los Angeles over Washington
New York over Boston

WORLD SERIES

Los Angeles over New York


As you can see, I predict this season to have a pretty boring outcome. Milwaukee is the only "surprise" team I went with, and the only real postseason surprise is Washington finally getting past the first round. But take heart: I'm sure a few games will be fun to watch. Let's hope I'm not as accurate as I was last year!

Is the 1990s Cub Pitcher Death Phenomenon Unusual?

With the recent release of the February 2018 SABR Biographical Research Committee newsletter, it was revealed that a few deaths from years past slipped through the cracks. One of them was former lefty reliever Doug Slaten, who last played in 2012, but whose 2016 death somehow evaded the notice of the baseball world. Another was former journeyman righty reliever Randy Veres, who also died in 2016. The thing about Veres, though, is that he is yet another deceased pitcher from the 1990s-era Cubs, as he showed up on their staff in 1994.

The tally of Cub pitcher deaths from 1991 to 2000 (yes, I shifted the window slightly to include one player) now stands as follows:

Rod Beck (June 23, 2007)
Geremi Gonzalez (May 25, 2008)
Kevin Foster (October 11, 2008)
Dave Smith (December 17, 2008)
Jessie Hollins (July 9, 2009)
Frank Castillo (July 28, 2013)
Ruben Quevedo (June 7, 2016)
Randy Veres (November 7, 2016)
Anthony Young (June 27, 2017)

That's nine players, all hurlers. No Cub non-pitcher deaths have been reported from that same era, and no deaths at all have been reported from the 1986-90 Cubs.

Out of curiosity, I've decided to compare the number of Cub deaths from 1991-2000 to other teams from the same era. Let's see how many individual players have been reported dead from each franchise:

	Deaths	Pitchers
Angels	4	2
Astros	10	6
Athletics	4	2
Blue Jays	5	4
Braves	4	2
Brewers	3	0
Cardinals	2	1
Cubs	9	9
Devil Rays	2	1
Diamondbacks	0	0
Dodgers	3	1
Expos	5	2
Giants	5	3
Indians	4	3
Mariners	3	2
Marlins	4	2
Mets	5	2
Orioles	9	6
Padres	5	0
Phillies	7	4
Pirates	2	2
Rangers	5	3
Red Sox	5	2
Reds	2	2
Rockies	4	3
Royals	5	4
Tigers	9	5
Twins	3	0
White Sox	3	0
Yankees	3	3

The data show the Astros with the most total player deaths, but the Cubs have the lead in pitcher deaths, with three more than the Orioles and Astros, who tie for second. While it's probably nothing more than a statistical anomaly, it does seem odd that I picked up on the trend in 2013 and it's only continued since then. You'd think at some point it would even out a bit. We'll have to keep our eyes on this phenomenon.

Final 12 Players By Decade

Active players from the 1990s have been dwindling year by year, and the only ones left in Spring Training 2018 are Bartolo Colon and Adrian Beltre, both of the Texas Rangers. Colon seems to be close to the end, but Beltre has become something of an ageless wonder, putting up productive seasons even into his late 30s.

In honor of a decade's players dropping off the scene, I thought it would be fun to look at previous decades and who their final representatives at the major league level were. Some of these are pretty interesting.

1900s

Stuffy McInnis	8/1/1927
Zack Wheat	9/21/1927
Walter Johnson	9/30/1927
Tris Speaker	8/30/1928
Ty Cobb	9/11/1928
Jimmy Austin	10/6/1929
Johnny Evers	10/6/1929
Eddie Collins	8/5/1930
Gabby Street	9/20/1931
Jack Quinn	7/7/1933
Nick Altrock	10/1/1933
Charley O'Leary	9/30/1934

We have four Hall of Famers at the ends of their careers, five coaches making publicity stunt appearances, one Hall of Famer who was basically just a coach at that point, and two guys who just played a long time. A nice snapshot of the era. An interesting note is that four of the five Hall of Famers played their final game with the Philadelphia Athletics.

1910s

Dazzy Vance	8/14/1935
Bob O'Farrell	9/23/1935
Sad Sam Jones	9/28/1935
Rabbit Maranville	9/29/1935
Tom Zachary	5/28/1936
George Uhle	9/22/1936
Charlie Grimm	9/23/1936
Rogers Hornsby	7/20/1937
Frankie Frisch	8/5/1937
Jesse Haines	9/10/1937
Waite Hoyt	5/15/1938
Jimmy Dykes	10/1/1939

The legendary Babe Ruth just missed the cut here. Here we see six Hall of Famers (about half of which probably shouldn't be in, and one of which only achieving that status thanks to one of the legitimate Hall of Famers on the list). The last man standing though, like Charley O'Leary the decade before, wasn't primarily a player, but a member of the dugout staff taking the field.

1920s

Bill Dickey	9/8/1946
Rollie Hemsley	4/17/1947
Art Herring	6/15/1947
Mel Ott	7/11/1947
Mel Harder	9/7/1947
Rick Ferrell	9/14/1947
Red Ruffing	9/15/1947
Al Lopez	9/16/1947
Si Johnson	9/25/1947
Doc Cramer	5/12/1948
Earl Caldwell	9/15/1948
Bobo Newsom	9/17/1953

Now here's an odder list. A lot of mediocre players on this one. There are three I'd consider legit Hall of Fame players, one I'd consider a legit Hall of Fame manager, and one who was a fine player but not a deserving Hall of Famer. And none of the Hall of Famers appear in the final four. And the last guy standing wasn't a coach or manager giving the fans a token appearance. How times change.

1930s

Phil Cavarretta	5/8/1955
Hank Majeski	7/26/1955
Eddie Joost	9/25/1955
Walt Masterson	9/24/1956
Bob Feller	9/30/1956
Dizzy Trout	9/11/1957
Bob Kennedy	9/29/1957
Murry Dickson	9/14/1959
Enos Slaughter	9/29/1959
Mickey Vernon	9/27/1960
Ted Williams	9/28/1960
Early Wynn	9/13/1963

Looks like old Early was late to leave the game, hanging on for a full three seasons as the only active player from the 1930s. On this list we have four Hall of Famers, two of which I'd definitely put in my personal Hall, while the others are borderline choices. I'll bet even the most hardcore fans couldn't have named Walt Masterson. I know I almost certainly wouldn't have thought of him.

1940s

Billy Pierce	10/3/1964
Duke Snider	10/3/1964
Yogi Berra	5/9/1965
Roy Sievers	5/9/1965
Nellie Fox	7/25/1965
Satchel Paige	9/25/1965
Warren Spahn	10/1/1965
Robin Roberts	9/3/1966
Del Crandall	9/25/1966
Joe Nuxhall	10/2/1966
Smoky Burgess	10/1/1967
Curt Simmons	10/1/1967
Minnie Minoso	10/5/1980

This is actually a final 13, since Pierce and Snider played their last game on the same day. Once again, we see six Hall of Famers, though none are in the last five. Minoso has his supporters, though. Paige's appearance was a publicity stunt too, of course.

1950s

Frank Robinson	9/18/1976
Tony Taylor	9/29/1976
Tommy Davis	10/2/1976
Billy Williams	10/2/1976
Hank Aaron	10/3/1976
Mike Cuellar	5/3/1977
Brooks Robinson	8/13/1977
Ron Fairly	9/23/1978
Willie McCovey	7/6/1980
Tim McCarver	10/5/1980
Minnie Minoso	10/5/1980
Jim Kaat	7/1/1983

Like Early Wynn before him, Jim Kaat was the sole player repping the fabulous '50s for three seasons. Five Hall of Famers on this list, and one who, as mentioned before, has his supporters. Minnie Minoso was brilliant for making that cameo in a non-contending season for the White Sox. I've noticed that if you look at the last "serious" players for each of these decades, the guy you come up with has always been a pitcher so far. Will that change?

1960s

Joe Niekro	4/29/1988
Gene Garber	7/1/1988
Don Sutton	8/9/1988
Graig Nettles	10/1/1988
Ted Simmons	10/2/1988
Tommy John	5/25/1989
Darrell Evans	10/1/1989
Bill Buckner	5/30/1990
Jerry Reuss	10/3/1990
Rick Dempsey	9/27/1992
Carlton Fisk	6/22/1993
Nolan Ryan	9/22/1993

Not yet. But interestingly, only three Hall of Famers on this list, two of which were the last two out the door. Nettles and Simmons have supporters, though.

1970s

Ozzie Smith	10/17/1996
Rick Honeycutt	5/2/1997
Eddie Murray	9/20/1997
Danny Darwin	9/22/1998
Dave Stieb	9/25/1998
Paul Molitor	9/27/1998
Dennis Eckersley	10/2/1998
Dennis Martinez	10/14/1998
Mike Morgan	9/2/2002
Tim Raines	9/29/2002
Rickey Henderson	9/19/2003
Jesse Orosco	9/27/2003

Another pitcher closing out the list. Good old lefty specialists like Jesse Orosco who play forever. Six Hall of Famers once again.

1980s

Kent Mercker	5/30/2008
Tom Glavine	8/14/2008
Kenny Rogers	9/14/2008
Rudy Seanez	9/28/2008
Greg Maddux	10/15/2008
Tom Gordon	5/3/2009
Gary Sheffield	9/30/2009
Randy Johnson	10/4/2009
John Smoltz	10/10/2009
Ken Griffey Jr.	5/31/2010
Jamie Moyer	5/27/2012
Omar Vizquel	10/3/2012

Finally! The last guy on the list isn't a pitcher! Five Hall of Famers make the cut here. Kent Mercker and Rudy Seanez seem like the most unlikely guys to pop up here.

Before we know it, we'll be counting down the last guys from the 2000s. Enjoy the players of this era while they're still with us. One day you wake up, see lists this, and find yourself feeling old.

Obligatory Hall of Fame Update: 2018

We have six new Hall of Famers for 2018, and that means the list of Hall of Famers' first major league home runs has been updated.

My thoughts on our new inductees? In brief:

Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, and Alan Trammell are all deserving, and I'm glad they got in.

Vladimir Guerrero was more of a borderline case, but he had the traditional numbers and the peak value to be a selection I won't complain too much about.

Trevor Hoffman was one of the most overrated players of all-time, but he was perceived as a future Hall of Famer throughout his career, so I guess it was inevitable. It's a shame that those save totals mean so much to voters. Billy Wagner was probably just as good, but with less-gaudy numbers.

And then there's Jack Morris. There's a selection that makes me angry. When he finally dropped off the BBWAA ballot, I breathed a sigh of relief that we wouldn't have to hear about his overrated career any longer. But then this Veteran's Committee thing decides to put him in. What a joke. The guy was never anything but a good, sturdy starter. He never had any dominant seasons. Yes, Pitching a 10-inning shutout in Game 7 of the World Series is a fine achievement, but it puts him in the Mazeroski Zone of worthiness. A fine career plus a legendary Game 7 are enough for a Cooperstown Plaque, apparently. I'm calling it now: Madison Bumgarner has already got his spot locked up.