Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Predictions For 2014

Since Opening Day is nearly upon us, I thought I would put down my preseason predictions, and at the end of the season, we'll see how horribly wrong (or horribly right, as the case may be) they were.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs (WC)
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Milwaukee Brewers

NL East

1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves (WC)
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins

AL West

1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals (WC)
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

AL East

1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays (WC)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

Playoffs:

NL Wild Card: Atlanta over Chicago
AL Wild Card: Kansas City over Tampa Bay

NLDS 1: Los Angeles over Atlanta
NLDS 2: St. Louis over Washington
ALDS 1: New York over Kansas City
ALDS 2: Texas over Detroit

NLCS: St. Louis over Los Angeles
ALCS: New York over Texas

World Series: New York Yankees over St. Louis Cardinals


I don't think any of my picks are too "out there," except my pick of the Cubs to win a Wild Card spot. Why am I picking them to win it, when the universal consensus is that the Cubs are at least a year away from contending? That's a secret. Even so, I have them losing the useless play-in game, so it won't much matter anyway.

Though baseball hates me, and I'm expecting another rotten ending to the season, maybe the regular season will have some memorable moments. I'm expecting the Royals to be this year's Pirates, so that'll be this year's fun ride. Let's do this.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

World Series Losers: The Plus Years


You should know how this works by now, as there have been three previous posts with this theme. Let's just jump right in. Who are the Plus Year leaders among the teams that lost the World Series?


Plus-1

Median: 22
Top Teams: 1991 ATL (32), 2007 COL (31), 1955 NYY (30), 2009 DET (29)
Bottom Teams: 1905 PHA (15), 1921 NYY (15), 1942 NYY (15), 2003 NYY (15), 1906 CHC (16), 1908 DET (16), 1922 NYY (16), 1943 STL (16)

After that magical 1991 season, the Braves wanted to bring back as much of the old gang as possible. Of course, many of those players were traded or released during the 1992 season, so it all evens out. It's not surprising that so many of the bottom teams played in an era of smaller rosters, but that 2003 Yankees team stands out. After losing to the Marlins, George Steinbrenner wanted him an overhaul.


Plus-2

Median: 16
Top Teams: 1965 MIN (22), 1969 BAL (22), 1979 BAL (22), 1991 ATL (21)
Bottom Teams: 1919 CHW (7), 1903 PIT (9), 1921 NYY (10), 1946 BOS (10)

The Orioles and Braves were definitely built around strong cores, but the 1965 Twins are something of a surprise. That was one of the more underrated cores in baseball history. As for the bottom teams, we can see that the Black Sox Scandal hit Comiskey's boys hard.


Plus-3

Median: 12
Top Teams: 1979 BAL (18), 1947 BRO (17), 1978 LAD (17), 1909 DET (16), 1934 DET (16), 1955 NYY (16), 1962 SFG (16), 1969 BAL (16), 1988 OAK (16)
Bottom Teams: 1998 SDP (5), 1914 PHA (6), 1919 CHW (6), 1940 DET (6), 2005 HOU (6), 1924 NYG (7), 1931 PHA (7), 1941 BRO (7), 2001 NYY (7), 2003 NYY (7)

The most impressive team in the top group is the 1909 Tigers. Even in the smaller-roster era, they had 16 of those players three years later. The bottom teams are more interesting. We see teams that had fire sales, the infamous Black Sox again, some teams just before World War II, and teams that were full of veterans at the end of the line. So close, and yet, so far.


Plus-4

Median: 9
Top Teams: 1952 BRO (16), 1955 NYY (16), 1947 BRO (15), 1979 BAL (15), 1942 NYY (14), 1956 BRO (13), 1969 BAL (13), 1974 LAD (13), 1988 OAK (13), 1992 ATL (13)
Bottom Teams: 1914 PHA (2), 1998 SDP (2), 1938 CHC (3), 1910 CHC (4), 1924 NYG (4), 1944 SLB (4), 1945 CHC (4), 1987 STL (4), 2002 SFG (4)

Imagine going to the World Series, and then having only two of those players still on the team four years later. Before I compiled this information, I didn't realize the Padres had done that just recently.


Plus-5

Median: 7
Top Teams: 1979 BAL (14), 1949 BRO (12), 1974 LAD (12), 1941 BRO (11), 1950 PHI (11), 1955 NYY (11), 1980 KCR (11)
Bottom Teams: 1931 PHA (1), 1944 SLB (1), 1998 SDP (1), 2000 NYM (1), 1914 PHA (2), 1945 CHC (2)

Two forgotten cores, the 1950's Phillies and the 1980's Royals, pop up in the top group.


Plus-6

Median: 5
Top Teams: 1940 DET (11), 1966 LAD (10), 1979 BAL (10), 1943 STL (9), 1949 BRO (9), 1950 PHI (9), 1955 NYY (9), 1974 LAD (9)
Bottom Teams: 1944 SLB (0), 2000 NYM (0), 1914 PHA (1), 1915 PHI (1), 1931 PHA (1), 1954 CLE (1), 1985 STL (1), 1993 PHI (1)

Now we see some teams who had no one left six years later. The 1944 Browns I can understand, as that was mostly a collection of WWII fill-ins playing for a financially-strapped franchise, but the 2000 Mets? Yes, that 2006 team that came within one game of the World Series actually had no players in common with the pennant-winner of six years before. The top team here is the 1940 Tigers, who saw a lot of their guys come back after the war to reclaim their old spots.


Plus-7

Median: 4
Top Teams: 1949 BRO (9), 1955 NYY (9), 1988 OAK (9), 1943 STL (8), 1950 PHI (8), 1962 SFG (8)
Bottom Teams: 1914 PHA (0), 1920 BRO (0), 1944 SLB (0), 1954 CLE (0), 2000 NYM (0)

The teams with none are piling up.


Plus-8

Median: 3
Top Teams: 1943 STL (7), 1949 BRO (7), 1950 PHI (7), 1955 NYY (6), 1962 SFG (6)
Bottom Teams: 1910 CHC (0), 1914 PHA (0), 1915 PHI (0), 1920 BRO (0), 1954 CLE (0), 1997 CLE (0), 2000 NYM (0), 2002 SFG (0), 2005 HOU (0)

That Whiz Kids core is still hanging around the top group. Two of these franchises in the bottom group won pennants in their Plus-8 seasons, the 1910 Cubs and the 2002 Giants. Apparently they needed to cleanse their rosters of all the guys from their last pennant-winner before they could win another.


Plus-9

Median: 2
Top Teams: 1909 DET (6), 1947 BRO (6), 1949 BRO (6), 1950 PHI (5), 1955 NYY (5), 2001 NYY (5)
Bottom Teams: 1910 CHC (0), 1914 PHA (0), 1918 CHC (0), 1920 BRO (0), 1933 WSH (0), 1960 NYY (0), 1963 NYY (0), 1990 OAK (0), 2000 NYM (0), 2002 SFG (0)

The 1918 Tigers saw several old faces come back, namely Bill Donovan and Davy Jones, plus an in-game appearance from manager Hughie Jennings, explaining their sudden appearance tied for the top spot.


Plus-10

Median: 2
Top Teams: 1955 NYY (5)
Bottom Teams: 18 teams

1955 was truly the beginning of a new era for the Yankees, as the core that carried them for the next ten years started to emerge. As you can also see, we're at the point where it's not uncommon to have no one left either.


Plus-11

Median: 1
Top Teams: 1907 DET (4), 1940 DET (4), 1947 BRO (4), 1955 NYY (4), 1992 ATL (4)
Bottom Teams: 27 teams

The good cores representin'!


Plus-12

Median: 1
Top Teams: 1935 CHC (4), 1940 DET (4), 2001 NYY (4), 1947 BRO (3), 1955 NYY (3), 1969 BAL (3), 1972 CIN (3), 1976 NYY (3), 1991 ATL (3), 1996 ATL (3)
Bottom Teams: 35 teams

Alfonso Soriano's return to the Bronx last season allowed the 2001 Yankees to join the top group. The 1935 Cubs are the real surprise, but the late-career returns of Billy Jurges and Bill Lee put them here.


Plus-13

Median: 1
Top Teams: 1925 WSH (4), 1932 CHC (3), 1940 DET (3), 1943 STL (3), 1947 BRO (3), 1972 CIN (3)

The 1925 Senators? Really? Believe it. The returns of Goose Goslin and Harry Kelley make it possible.


Plus-14

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1925 WSH (3), 1943 STL (3), 1970 CIN (3), 1972 CIN (3), 1911 NYG (2), 1912 NYG (2), 1914 PHA (2), 1932 CHC (2), 1947 BRO (2), 1975 BOS (2)


Plus-15

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1970 CIN (3), 1932 CHC (2)

The 1932 Cubs are the only team with as many as two...except the 1970 Reds, who win with three.


Plus-16

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1970 CIN (3), 1909 DET (2), 1914 PHA (2), 1992 ATL (2)

The Philadelphia A's brought back Eddie Collins and Wally Schang at the end of their careers, making them one of the top teams in the Plus-16 year despite being one of the bottom teams in the Plus-3 year.


Plus-17

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1991 ATL (2)

The Glavine-Smoltz duo was something truly special, and don't you ever forget it.


Plus-18

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1907 DET, 1908 DET, 1927 PIT, 1935 CHC, 1943 STL, 1951 NYG, 1962 SFG, 1970 CIN

Most players who put their teams here are Hall of Famers, but two (Phil Cavarretta and Dave Concepcion) are not, and another (Lloyd Waner) probably shouldn't be.


Plus-19

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1907 DET, 1943 STL, 1951 NYG

Cobb, Musial, Mays...


Plus-20

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1943 STL, 1951 NYG

Musial, Mays...


Plus-21

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1951 NYG

Mays...


Plus-22

Median: 0
Top Teams: 1966 LAD

...and then Don Sutton returned to the Dodgers for one last season, where they won the World Series two months after he was released.


So that does it for the World Series editions of these lists. I might have more along these lines in the future though, since I'm trying to compile this info for every team, not just the ones that made it to the World Series. We'll see if anything comes of that.