Saturday, July 29, 2017

PTWSW #79: The 1982 St. Louis Cardinals

Manager: Whitey Herzog
Record: 92-70
Ballpark: Busch Memorial Stadium
Owner: August Busch Jr.
GM: Joe McDonald
Coaches: Chuck Hiller, Hub Kittle, Hal Lanier, Dave Ricketts, Red Schoendienst

Future Hall of Famers: Ozzie Smith, Bruce Sutter

All-Stars: Lonnie Smith, Ozzie Smith

Team Leaders, Batting

BA: Lonnie Smith, .307
OBP: Keith Hernandez, .397
SLG: George Hendrick, .450
OPS: Lonnie Smith, .815
2B: Lonnie Smith, 35
3B: Lonnie Smith, Willie McGee, 8
HR: George Hendrick, 19
RBI: George Hendrick, 104
BB: Keith Hernandez, 100
SB: Lonnie Smith, 68

Team Leaders, Pitching

W: Joaquin Andujar, Bob Forsch, 15
SO: Joaquin Andujar, 137
ERA: Joaquin Andujar, 2.47
IP: Joaquin Andujar, 265.2
CG: Joaquin Andujar, 9
SHO: Joaquin Andujar, 5
K/BB: Joaquin Andujar, 2.74
SV: Bruce Sutter, 36 (NL leader)

Tidbits

Oldest Player: Jim Kaat (b. November 7, 1938)

Youngest Player: David Green (b. December 4, 1960)

First to Leave Us: Darrell Porter (d. August 5, 2002)

Last Survivor: Most are still living as of the date of this post.

First in Majors: Jim Kaat (debut August 2, 1959)

Last in Majors: Willie McGee (final game October 3, 1999)

First to Play For the Franchise: Bob Forsch (July 7, 1974)

Last to Play For the Franchise: Willie McGee (October 3, 1999)

Pre-union Team: The 1978 San Diego Padres had five: George Hendrick, Steve Mura, Eric Rasmussen, Ozzie Smith, and Gene Tenace.

Reunion Team: The 1983 Detroit Tigers (Doug Bair, Julio Gonzalez, and John Martin) and 1988 Atlanta Braves (Ken Oberkfell, Lonnie Smith, and Bruce Sutter) had three each.

Accomplishments

Keith Hernandez, NL First Base Gold Glove
Ozzie Smith, NL Shortstop Gold Glove

Season Summary

In 1980, the once-proud St. Louis Cardinals had spent a decade mired in mediocrity. Poor hiring choices, ill-conceived trades, and the stale leadership of company men had resulted in no postseason appearances since the NL pennant of 1968. In early June, the Cardinals found themselves with the worst record in baseball, which led to the firing of former Redbird great Ken Boyer as manager. To replace him, the Cards hired Whitey Herzog, whom the Royals had controversially fired at the end of 1979, just one year removed from a run of three straight division titles.

There was definite talent on the team Herzog inherited, which showed itself once he took the reins. With Whitey at the helm, the Cards went on a 38-35 run before Herzog handed the reins to Red Schoendienst, allowing himself to finish the season as general manager. It was as GM that Herzog would remake the Cardinals into the team he wanted; out were longtime slugging catcher Ted Simmons and longtime slow-footed third baseman Ken Reitz, who had started the 1980 All-Star Game. To replace them, Herzog brought in free agent backstop Darrell Porter, who'd played for him in Kansas City, and young infielder Ken Oberkfell took over the hot corner. He also landed All-Star closer Bruce Sutter from the Cubs to handle ninth inning duties.

With their revamped roster, the Cardinals might've won it all in 1981. With Herzog doing double duty as field manager and general manager, St. Louis finished with the best record in the National League East. Unfortunately, due to the mid-season strike, the playoff format required a team to have the best record in their division for either the first or second half of the season, neither of which the Cardinals accomplished. The Cardinals spent that October watching the postseason on television, and Herzog prepared himself for another busy offseason.

In October, the Cards acquired a minor league outfielder named Willie McGee from the Yankees in exchange for pitcher Bob Sykes. The move wasn't flashy, and it was overshadowed by the Yankees playing in the World Series at the time, but it would prove significant. Herzog would also re-sign free agent pitcher Joaquin Andujar, grab outfielder Lonnie Smith from the Phillies, and trade talented-but-troubled shortstop Garry Templeton to the Padres. The key player the Cardinals got back from San Diego? A little shortstop with an outstanding glove by the name of Osborne Earl Smith. Little did anyone at the time know that Ozzie Smith would spend 15 seasons in a Cardinal uniform.

After getting off to a 1-3 start, Herzog relinquished his GM duties and stuck to managing full time. The Cardinals then went on a 12-game winning streak, propelling them into the pennant race early. McGee, the promising young outfielder, made his major league debut in May, and quickly became the full-time center fielder, allowing Lonnie Smith to take his more natural position in left field. The Redbirds struggled a bit in June, and by the All-Star break, they were in a close race with the Phillies for the division title.

Both teams continued their winning ways through the second half, and on August 12, the Cardinals regained first place. They brought their lead up to 3.5 games on September 1, only to see it slip away when a slump coincided with a Philly hot stretch. On September 13, with the Cardinals holding a half-game lead, the two teams met for a three-game series at Veterans Stadium. The Phillies took the first match (as well as first place) behind Steve Carlton's three-hit complete game shutout. Not to be outdone, the Cardinals roared back by not allowing any runs in the next two games. Joaquin Andujar pitched a three-hit complete game shutout of his own in the third contest. It was the start of an eight-game winning streak, which gave the Cardinals the division lead they'd hold for the rest of the season. On September 27 against the Expos, the Cardinals clinched their first-ever NL East title.

Whitey Herzog had truly created a team in his own image. With McGee, the two Smiths, and Tommy Herr leading the way, the Cardinals topped the league with 200 stolen bases, while finishing last with a paltry 67 home runs. They tied San Diego for the lead in triples, and they were first in on-base percentage, thanks to finishing second in both batting average and walks. Their pitchers struck out the fewest batters in the league, but they made up for it by allowing few homers, and their fielding was among the best in the NL.

The National League Championship Series matched the Cardinals with the Atlanta Braves, who were appearing in the postseason for the first time since 1969. Game 1 was initially rained out with the Braves leading 1-0, and when the game was replayed, the Cardinals won easily, as Bob Forsch pitched a 7-0 shutout. Game 2 was the only close one of the series; it was a tie ballgame in the bottom of the ninth when Ken Oberkfell's drive just got past Brett Butler's glove in center field, scoring David Green with the game-winner. The series shifted to Atlanta, but Game 3 proved to be another easy victory for St. Louis, allowing them to complete the sweep and make it back to the World Series for the first time in 14 years.

The American League's representative was the Milwaukee Brewers, playing in the franchise's first World Series, who had come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS to beat the Angels. On the Brewers' roster were three players Herzog had traded away during the wheeling-and-dealing 1980-81 offseason: Former franchise icon Ted Simmons, 18-game winner Pete Vuckovich, who would win the Cy Young that year, and injured closer Rollie Fingers, who wouldn't see action in the World Series. Of the players the Cardinals had received back in that deal, two were still on the roster (David Green and Dave LaPoint), one was included in the deal for Ozzie Smith (Sixto Lezcano), and the other was included in the deal for Lonnie Smith (Lary Sorensen). The Brewers were in many ways the Cardinals' opposite: They won mostly by slugging home runs, and weren't big on base-stealing. Their pitching and defense were average at best, and they relied on hits much more than walks.

The Brewers won Game 1 in a blowout, by a score of 10-0. Milwaukee's dynamic duo of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor combined for nine hits and four runs driven in. The resilient Cardinals bounced back, however, with wins in Games 2 and 3. The Cards' Game 2 win came on Steve Braun's bases-loaded walk in the eighth inning, and Willie McGee's two homers powered them to victory in Game 3. The Brewers wouldn't quit though, and they won the next two to take a 3-2 series lead. The Brew Crew took Game 4 thanks to a six-run seventh inning, and Game 5 saw Yount put up his second four-hit game of the series.

Back at Busch for Game 6, the Cardinals returned the favor from Game 1 by blowing out the Brewers 13-1. St. Louis starter John Stuper went the distance, allowing only four hits and two walks in the must-win game. That set the stage for Game 7, which pitted Vuckovich against Andujar, who was returning from an injury in Game 3. After five innings, the game was tied at one apiece, but the Brewers scored two in the top of the sixth to take the lead. The Cardinals were unfazed, however, scoring three of their own in the bottom half to go ahead 4-3. They would never trail the rest of the way. Andujar completed seven innings, and Bruce Sutter came in for the final two, retiring all six batters he faced to close out both the game and the series.

In just two years, Whitey Herzog had turned the Cardinals from a mediocre also-ran to a World Series champion. It was the first championship ring of his career, and he had done it his way. For St. Louis fans, it was the first time they'd won it all since 1967, when Bob Gibson, Lou Brock, and company were still in their primes. It was the beginning of what was to be a successful era in the Gateway City.


Acknowledgements:

Baseball Reference
Baseball Almanac
Google News Archives
Retrosheet
New York Times: Cardinals Are Baseball's Mystery Team
1982 NLCS on Wikipedia

Thursday, June 29, 2017

R.I.P. Anthony Young

It's happened again. The curse of the 1990s Cub pitching staff claimed another, as Anthony Young passed away Tuesday from a brain tumor. I only have vague memories of Young, as I'd just started following baseball when he was with the Cubs, but I do remember his name and reading about his famous losing streak after the fact.

He's been preceded in death by six other Cubbie hurlers from the decade: Rod Beck, Geremi Gonzalez, Kevin Foster, Dave Smith, Jessie Hollins, Frank Castillo, and if you want to count the year 2000, Ruben Quevedo as well.

Rest in peace, Mr. Young. Your perseverance will never be forgotten.

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

The First Active Player From Each Expansion Franchise (Part II)

We're back again, looking at the first player to debut for each major league expansion franchise. We did the first seven last time, and now it's time for the last seven!

8. Kansas City Royals: Harmon Killebrew, June 23, 1954

At last we come across another Hall of Famer. We also have a rarity, in that this player didn't suit up for the expansion franchise in its first few years, but its seventh, that being 1975.

Killebrew debuted in 1954 with the Washington Senators as an 18-year-old pinch-runner against the White Sox. It's a bit ironic that the slow-footed slugger first stepped onto the diamond in such a role, but baseball can be a funny game. While "Killer" appeared in the majors every year between 1954 and 1958, he didn't become a full-time player until 1959, when he took over at third base and led the AL with 42 home runs. He would go on to lead the league in homers five more times, finishing with a career total of 573.

After 21 years with the Senators/Twins franchise, the 38-year-old Killebrew was released, and he signed with the Royals as a free agent shortly after. He served mainly as a DH for Kansas City, and while he belted 14 homers his last season, his batting and on-base averages were far below his career levels, signalling that his time had come.

9. Toronto Blue Jays: Ron Fairly, September 9, 1958

1958 was the Dodgers' first year in Los Angeles, and it also saw the debut of a youngster who would spend 12 seasons in Dodger blue. Fairly was a first baseman/outfielder whose versatility and patience at the plate helped the Dodgers with four pennants and three World Series. He was traded to the Expos during their inaugural season, and he would remain there through 1974.

His experience with one first-year Canadian franchise made him a good candidate for another. In 1977, he was traded to the fresh-faced Blue Jays, where he would hit a career-high 19 home runs serving mainly as designated hitter, and also be the team's lone All-Star representative.

The Jays traded him to the Angels after the season, where he would spend his final year in the majors before calling it quits.

10. Seattle Mariners: Diego Segui, April 12, 1962

Segui was a right-handed pitcher who always seemed to have a place with Charlie O. Finley's Athletics. He debuted for the franchise during their all-losing-season stint in Kansas City, then was reacquired by the team twice after finding himself elsewhere. He didn't stick around long enough to taste victory champagne though, as the A's traded him to the Cardinals during their 1972 World Series championship season, the franchise's first in 42 years, never to reacquire him again.

Segui holds the distinction of being the only player to play for two different major league franchises in the city of Seattle. He was a relief ace for the ill-fated 1969 Pilots, then found himself back in the Emerald City for the Mariners' debut season. He was named Opening Day starter, but didn't make it out of the 4th inning, earning the loss. After two more poor starts, Segui was demoted to the bullpen, making only occasional starts the rest of the season. He finished the year with a record of 0-7.

Segui never returned to the majors, but he continued his career in the Mexican League, where he played until 1985.

11. Florida Marlins: Charlie Hough, August 12, 1970

On a summer night in Pittsburgh's brand new Three Rivers Stadium, the Dodgers were leading 11-4, but reliever Pete Mikkelsen clearly didn't have his best stuff that day. Walter Alston decided to bring in a rookie knuckleballer for a chance to close out the game with two on and two out. After walking Al Oliver to load the bases, the young Florida native struck out Hall of Fame slugger Willie Stargell to earn the save. It was the first appearance of a 25-year career in the bigs, as well as the first appearance by a future Florida Marlin.

Hough didn't stick in the majors until 1973, when he became a reliable member of the L.A. bullpen. He remained with the Dodgers through 1980, appearing in three World Series (all losses) along the way. After being sold to the Texas Rangers, he was converted to a starter in 1982, a role he'd hold the rest of his career. He was pretty consistent in that role; from 1982 to 1988 he won between 14 and 18 games each year, while making over 30 starts and throwing over 200 innings each time. One wonders what he might've done had he been made a starter sooner.

When the Marlins prepared for their inaugural season in 1993, they signed the soon-to-be 45-year-old hometown boy to be a veteran presence on their pitching staff. He started the first game in Marlins history and earned the win, en route to 34 starts and over 200 innings pitched for the newcomer franchise. He retired after the 1994 season due to a degenerative hip condition.

12. Colorado Rockies: Dale Murphy, September 13, 1976

Speaking of Charlie Hough earning saves, he earned one in a game against the Braves in 1976 that marked the debut of a young Atlanta player named Dale Murphy. The kid, who would develop into a franchise icon and win back-to-back MVPs while playing center field in the early '80s, started at catcher and went 2-for-4 with two driven in. One of those RBI even came against Hough in the 8th inning.

While Murphy was one of the best players in the game for nearly a decade, he began to decline in his early 30s, and was traded to the Phillies during the 1990 season, a year before his longtime franchise would start winning pennants and make a case for being the Team of the '90s.

After a knee injury limited Murphy to only 18 games in 1992, the Phillies brought him back on a minor league contract for the next season. However, when the Rockies showed interest, the Phillies granted him his release so he could sign with the first-year club. Sadly, Murphy's stint in Colorado only confirmed that he had nothing left, as he slashed .143/.224/.167 with no home runs, despite the thin Rocky Mountain air. When the Rockies released him in May, he officially called it quits.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Morgan, June 11, 1978

With the 4th pick in the 1978 MLB Draft, the Oakland A's selected an 18-year-old high school pitcher named Mike Morgan. The A's were off to a surprising start at the time, in first place after finishing the previous year in last, and they decided to give the youngster a major league start less than a week after selecting him. Morgan pitched a complete game and allowed only two earned runs against the formidable Baltimore Orioles, but it wasn't enough, as his offense was shut out by Scott McGregor. After losing his next two starts, the A's sent him to the minors. Oh, and the A's? Their hot start proved to be a fluke, and they finished with 93 losses.

Morgan proved to be one of the most well-traveled players in baseball history, playing with 12 franchises over the course of 22 years, including two separate stints with the Cubs. The veteran was a few days short of 39 when he made his postseason debut, coming out of the bullpen for the Cubs in a Division Series where they were swept by the Braves. It wouldn't be his last chance though, as he signed with the third-year Diamondbacks before the 2000 season. In 2001, the franchise made its second postseason appearance, going all the way to the World Series and beating the Yankees in seven games, giving Morgan a ring 23 years after his professional debut. He retired after the 2002 season.

14. Tampa Bay Rays: Wade Boggs, April 10, 1982

And we have one more Hall of Famer to add to the list. Boggs was one of the greatest third basemen in history, winning five batting titles with the Red Sox and leading the league in on-base percentage six times. He defected to the rival Yankees after 1992, where he spent five seasons and won a World Series in 1996.

The Devil Rays, as they were known at the time, signed Boggs for their inaugural season in 1998. Like Charlie Hough with the Marlins, it was a return home, as Boggs grew up in Tampa. While the first two seasons of MLB in western Florida weren't much to write home about, Boggs provided the team with some highlights. He hit the first home run in franchise history on Opening Day 1998, and the next year, he got the 3,000th hit of his career. That hit was a home run, making him the first player in baseball history to get number 3,000 on a homer. As it turned out, it was the last home run he would ever hit in the big leagues, and he only gathered ten more hits after it. He finished the season on the injured list with torn cartilage in his knee, and announced his retirement in November.

He finished with a lifetime .328 batting average, 12 All-Star selections, and was inducted to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

I hope this list was interesting. Long before any of these franchises was conceived, there were future members of the roster playing baseball at the top level. Only in retrospect did we know that these players were making history.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

The First Active Player From Each Expansion Franchise (Part I)

From 1903 to 1952, Major League Baseball was a pretty static institution. For a full half-century, there were two leagues with the same eight teams in the same cities. (The short-lived Federal League briefly showed its face, but it folded before it could gain the prestige of the American and National Leagues.) The 1950s saw the beginning of franchise moves, with the Braves, Browns, Athletics, Dodgers, and Giants all picking up stakes within a five-year period. It was a new era for baseball, one where market and technological changes forced the game to expand its reach.

From there, we saw the beginning of the expansion era in 1961. The American League was first to add a pair of new franchises, followed by the National League in 1962. More and more teams have been added over the years, to the point where nearly half of all MLB teams are former expansion franchises.

It got me thinking: Who was the first active player in each expansion franchise's history? Who was the player who first stepped onto a Major League field, long before the franchise in question had even been conceived? Let's take a look at all 14 expansion franchises, in chronological order of their first player to debut.

1. New York Mets: Warren Spahn, April 19, 1942

On an early-season day in 1942, before most of baseball's stars had enlisted in the armed forces for World War II, a young left-hander made his debut for the home team in Boston's Braves Field. After coming back from the war in 1946, his career would really take off, and he'd go on to become the winningest southpaw in baseball history, with 363 victories, thirteen 20-win seasons and an eventual Hall of Fame enshrinement.

After the 1964 season, the longtime Brave was sold to the New York Mets, who had just completed their third season of existence. At that point, the Braves had been based in Milwaukee for over a decade and Braves Field had long since been demolished. Spahn played only 21 games as a Met before being released in July and catching on with the Giants to finish out his career.

2. Texas Rangers: Gene Woodling, September 23, 1943

The great platoon outfielder made his debut as a member of the Cleveland Indians, when he pinch-hit for center fielder Hank Edwards in the 8th inning of a late-season game in 1943. He would go on to play 17 years in the majors and win five World Series in a row with the New York Yankees from 1949 to 1953.

When Washington was granted a new franchise to replace the original departing Washington Senators (now the Twins), they took Woodling in the expansion draft, and he played for them during their first two years of existence. Those Washington Senators would become the Rangers several years after Woodling had hung up his spikes.

3. Los Angeles Angels: Joe Nuxhall, June 10, 1944

Perhaps no one on this list had a more memorable debut than Joe Nuxhall. Due to depleted rosters from the war, the Reds gave the local boy, still a month shy of his 16th birthday, a chance to pitch in the late innings of a blowout against the two-time defending NL Champion Cardinals. He predictably got shelled for five runs before being removed. It was his only appearance that season, but it earned him the distinction of being the youngest player in major league history (at least, that we can ascertain).

His appearance ended up being more than a gimmick; he resurfaced with the Reds in 1952, and went on to spend 15 of his 16 major league seasons in a Cincinnati uniform, with two All-Star appearances to his name. In a cruel twist of fate, the only year he didn't spend with the Reds was 1961, when the team won its first pennant in over 20 years. His stint with the fledgling Los Angeles Angels was brief, lasting a little over a month in 1962 before he was released and rejoined the franchise he started with. After his playing career ended, he started a new one as a beloved radio announcer.

4. Houston Astros: Billy Goodman, April 19, 1947

Billy Goodman spent the first two months of his major league career on the roster of the defending AL Champion Red Sox, being used mainly as a pinch-hitter. He went back to the minors for the rest of the season, but he was back for good in 1948, when he finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. He developed a reputation for good hitting (.300 career average) and the versatility to play all over the diamond. Other career highlights included a batting title in 1950 and a World Series appearance in 1959 as a member of the White Sox.

His stint with the Astros (then called the Colt .45s) came after the White Sox released him at the start of the 1962 season, and he caught on with the first-year franchise in May. In that final season of his major league career, he mainly served as a utility infielder and a pinch-hitter.

5. Washington Nationals: Roy Face, April 16, 1953

If the early 1950s wasn't the worst period in Pirates history, it was certainly a close second. In 1953, a 25-year-old hurler made his debut, starting 13 of the 41 games in which he took the mound. His 6.58 ERA didn't indicate much promise, and he could've easily disappeared like so many of the mediocrities the Pirates employed back then. However, he resurfaced with Pittsburgh in 1955, and within a few years developed into a relief ace. In 1959, he set a record with 18 wins in relief, and earned the first of three straight All-Star selections.

In 1968, the Pirates sold their veteran fireman to the Tigers, who released him the next year. He caught on with the first-year Montreal Expos (precursor to today's Nats), where he allowed no runs in his first six appearances. After struggling in his next several appearances, he got it together and managed to be serviceable for a few more months, before being released in August, ending the 41-year-old's career.

6. San Diego Padres: Johnny Podres, April 17, 1953

The fortuitously named Podres had his rookie season as a 20-year-old lefty pitcher with the Brooklyn Dodgers during their dominant 1953 season. Two years later, he became a franchise icon when he pitched two complete game victories in the World Series, including a shutout in Game 7, to lead Brooklyn to its first ever title, when they finally vanquished the hated Yankees. For his performance, he was named World Series MVP.

He was a mainstay of the Dodger rotation until he was sold to Detroit in 1966. After spending 1968 out of organized baseball, his career got one last shot with the first-year San Diego franchise, though the results were less than impressive. It turned out to be the end of his playing career, and he soon transitioned into coaching.

7. Milwaukee Brewers: Dick Schofield, July 3, 1953

Schofield had a long career as an infielder, but he was rarely a full-time starter during his 19 years of service. He debuted as an 18-year-old with the Cardinals in 1953, and from 1963 to 1965, he was the Pirates' primary shortstop, the only years of his career where he played in over 100 games.

In 1971, he began the season with the Cardinals (the third St. Louis stint of his career), but they traded him to the third-year Brewer franchise in July. By that point, Schofield was finished, slashing .107/.194/.179 in 23 games with Milwaukee.

Those are the first seven, with seven left to go. In the next installment, we'll look at the rest of them.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

2017 Predictions One Month In

Yes, I know this is totally cheap, but since I forgot to make a preseason predictions post at the beginning of the year, I figured I had to make one at some point. Yes, I have the benefit of knowing about injuries to key players like Adam Eaton and Madison Bumgarner, but it's still early enough in the season that the races are up in the air. Even a quick glance at past seasons one month in shows that a hot start is no guarantee of a postseason berth. Sometimes the teams that end up making it don't even have a winning record yet!

So with that in mind, here are my predictions for the playoff picture and final results of the 2017 MLB season, and they're not much different than what I would've predicted at the beginning of the month:


NL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres


NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals*
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds


NL EAST

Washington Nationals
New York Mets*
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies


AL WEST

Houston Astros
Texas Rangers*
Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels


AL CENTRAL

Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins


AL EAST

Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles*
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays


I'm playing it safe by picking most of the same teams as last year, because that's the way the prediction business goes.

And now for the Playoffs!


WILD CARD GAMES

Rangers over Orioles
Cardinals over Mets


DIVISION SERIES

Dodgers over Cardinals
Cubs over Nationals
Astros over Rangers
Blue Jays over Indians


LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Dodgers over Cubs
Astros over Blue Jays


WORLD SERIES

Dodgers over Astros


Hey, it's all one big crapshoot anywho! Your guess is as good as mine!