Second Wind: Keith Hernandez

Once again, I'm starting a series while several others are still up in the air. Unlike Profiling the World Series Winners and Home For October though, this one doesn't require a certain number of posts to be complete; I can do as many or as few as I wish. Works out well, doesn't it?

So what's this new series? Well, every one of us can probably think of a few players whose careers would be viewed differently if they'd had more longevity. Perhaps it was an injury, perhaps it was an off-field issue, perhaps it was a simple loss of passion for the game, but these players hung it up when under different circumstances they might've had some good years ahead of them. It got me thinking...what if some of these guys had (drumroll please) a second wind? What if, just when their playing days appeared all but over, they experienced a revival? How exciting! How grand! There had to be someone out there who could simulate such scenarios! Well, hey! I came up with the idea! Why not me?

Just so there's no confusion, for this exercise we'll be adding seasons to these players' existing careers, not changing any seasons they actually played. Sure, it'd be nice to go back and improve on a few bad years, but we're presuming here that these guys bounced back from a downturn. Obviously it's impossible to know for certain how these hypothetical situations would've played out, but we can make reasonable guesses. Since this is all for fun anyway, we're allowed to take a little creative license if needed.

The first player we'll look at is the guy whose career gave me the idea for this project: Keith Hernandez. For anyone unfamiliar with Keith Hernandez's career, here's the CliffsNotes version:

Hernandez came up with the Cardinals in 1974, and by 1976 he was firmly established as their starting first baseman. He wasn't a prototypical first-sacker, as he relied more on doubles than home runs, but he knew how to take a walk and was one of the best defensive players ever at the position. He tied for National League MVP in 1979 and helped the Cards to a World Series title in 1982. In 1983 he was traded to the Mets, where he continued to be among the most durable and consistent players in the game. He helped them win the 1986 World Series, and the next year he was named the first team captain in franchise history. In 1988 injuries started catching up with him, as he played fewer than 100 games that year and the next. After the 1989 season he signed a two-year deal with the Indians which proved disastrous; he only played 43 games for Cleveland before a calf injury sidelined him for the season, and he didn't even make it to Spring Training next year due to a herniated disc. At 37 years old his career was through.

His final statistics were as follows:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos
1974	20	STL	NL	14	41	34	3	10	1	2	0	2	0	0	7	8	.294	.415	.441	.856	140	15	1	0	0	0	0	/3
1975	21	STL	NL	64	207	188	20	47	8	2	3	20	0	1	17	26	.250	.309	.362	.671	83	68	5	0	0	2	2	3
1976	22	STL	NL	129	428	374	54	108	21	5	7	46	4	2	49	53	.289	.376	.428	.803	127	160	8	3	2	0	5	*3
1977	23	STL	NL	161	645	560	90	163	41	4	15	91	7	7	79	88	.291	.379	.459	.837	125	257	17	1	3	2	11	*3
1978	24	STL	NL	159	633	542	90	138	32	4	11	64	13	5	82	68	.255	.351	.389	.741	108	211	12	2	1	6	11	*3
1979	25	STL	NL	161	698	610	116	210	48	11	11	105	11	6	80	78	.344	.417	.513	.930	151	313	9	1	0	7	5	*3
1980	26	STL	NL	159	690	595	111	191	39	8	16	99	14	8	86	73	.321	.408	.494	.902	147	294	14	4	1	4	4	*3
1981	27	STL	NL	103	444	376	65	115	27	4	8	48	12	5	61	45	.306	.401	.463	.864	142	174	9	2	0	5	6	*3/7
1982	28	STL	NL	160	694	579	79	173	33	6	7	94	19	11	100	67	.299	.397	.413	.810	127	239	10	2	1	12	19	*3/79
1983	29	TOT	NL	150	633	538	77	160	23	7	12	63	9	5	88	72	.297	.396	.433	.829	131	233	7	2	2	3	14	*3
1983	29	STL	NL	55	244	218	34	62	15	4	3	26	1	1	24	30	.284	.352	.431	.784	116	94	2	0	0	2	5	3
1983	29	NYM	NL	95	389	320	43	98	8	3	9	37	8	4	64	42	.306	.424	.434	.858	140	139	5	2	2	1	9	3
1984	30	NYM	NL	154	657	550	83	171	31	0	15	94	2	3	97	89	.311	.409	.449	.859	143	247	9	1	0	9	12	*3
1985	31	NYM	NL	158	682	593	87	183	34	4	10	91	3	3	77	59	.309	.384	.430	.814	129	255	14	2	0	10	15	*3
1986	32	NYM	NL	149	652	551	94	171	34	1	13	83	2	1	94	69	.310	.413	.446	.859	140	246	14	4	0	3	9	*3
1987	33	NYM	NL	154	676	587	87	170	28	2	18	89	0	2	81	104	.290	.377	.436	.813	120	256	15	4	0	4	8	*3
1988	34	NYM	NL	95	384	348	43	96	16	0	11	55	2	1	31	57	.276	.333	.417	.750	120	145	11	1	0	4	3	3
1989	35	NYM	NL	75	244	215	18	50	8	0	4	19	0	3	27	39	.233	.324	.326	.649	91	70	4	2	0	0	3	3
1990	36	CLE	AL	43	145	130	7	26	2	0	1	8	0	0	14	17	.200	.283	.238	.521	48	31	2	1	0	0	3	3
17 Seasons				2088	8553	7370	1124	2182	426	60	162	1071	98	63	1070	1012	.296	.384	.436	.821	128	3214	161	32	10	71	130
				G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/12/2011.

Now, let's just suppose this herniated disc never happens. Let's presume Hernandez rehabs as best he can from the calf injury, and that by the time Spring Training 1991 rolls around he's looking like an older-but-still-effective version of the guy who was the National League's best first baseman for almost a decade. While he's lost a step in the field, he's still adept at scoops and positioning himself smartly, making his defensive contributions a positive. It's no surprise when Hernandez turns in a nice little comeback season:

G    PA   AB   R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
139  557  478  69  141  24   2  12   74   2   0  72  81  .295 .390 .429 .818  126  205   11   4   0   3   6

All in all, the Indians end up happy their investment wasn't a total loss. However, Cleveland has no plans to resign Hernandez, as they're in the middle of a youth movement. New Indians GM John Hart has a system full of young players who need to develop, and with minor league prospect Reggie Jefferson expected to take over at first, the veteran Hernandez doesn't fit into their plans. Having shown he can still play, Mex hits the free agent market in hopes of catching on somewhere.

That's where the Montreal Expos enter the picture. They've just traded away first baseman Andres Galarraga, and manager Tom Runnells is talking about moving third baseman Tim Wallach across the diamond to replace him (a proposition Wallach isn't too happy about). To solve their dilemma, the Expos sign Hernandez to a one-year deal and allow Wallach to keep his regular post. Now 38, Hernandez is starting to look less like a star, but he's still better than alternatives like Greg Colbrunn and Archi Cianfrocco. During the 1992 season Hernandez proves he can still hit a little, but his defense is now average at best:

G    PA   AB   R   H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
112  416  366  45  96  18   2   8   48   1   2  47  59  .262 .349  .388  .737  110  142   9    2   0   1   3

This season isn't great, but it's certainly respectable for a 38-year-old. Because the Expos still have questionable depth at first base, Hernandez is invited back for a second season in Montreal. However, 1993 is when his power really starts to drop off, and he finds himself unable to play as frequently as he used to. He usually only starts against right-handers, and he's little more than a veteran placeholder at this point:

G   PA   AB   R   H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
97  322  286  29  73  13   0   5   31   0   1  34  52  .255 .336 .353 .690   82  101   7    1   1   0   1

By now it's clear that Keith Hernandez is nearing the end of the line. With lefty-swinging first baseman Cliff Floyd waiting in the wings, the Expos no longer have any need for his services. Still hoping to make one last go at it, Hernandez catches on with the flaccid Pirates for 1994, where his decline becomes even more pronounced:

G   PA  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
27  84  76   6  18   2   0   1   9    0   0   7  23  .237 .301 .303 .604   58   23   2    0   1   0   0

Used mainly as a pinch-hitter and an occasional starter against righties, Hernandez offers little production before he's released in late May. He doesn't resurface in 1995, making him yet another player for whom the strike signifies the end of an era.

After this second wind, what does Keith Hernandez's career now look like?

Year Age Tm  Lg  G    PA   AB   R    H    2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+ TB   GDP HBP SH SF IBB
1974 20  STL NL  14   41   34   3    10    1  2  0    2    0   0  7    8   .294 .415 .441 .856  140  15   1   0   0  0   0
1975 21  STL NL  64   207  188  20   47    8  2  3    20   0   1  17   26  .250 .309 .362 .671  83   68   5   0   0  2   2
1976 22  STL NL  129  428  374  54   108  21  5  7    46   4   2  49   53  .289 .376 .428 .803  127  160  8   3   2  0   5
1977 23  STL NL  161  645  560  90   163  41  4  15   91   7   7  79   88  .291 .379 .459 .837  125  257  17  1   3  2   11
1978 24  STL NL  159  633  542  90   138  32  4  11   64   13  5  82   68  .255 .351 .389 .741  108  211  12  2   1  6   11
1979 25  STL NL  161  698  610  116  210  48  11 11   105  11  6  80   78  .344 .417 .513 .930  151  313  9   1   0  7   5
1980 26  STL NL  159  690  595  111  191  39  8  16   99   14  8  86   73  .321 .408 .494 .902  147  294  14  4   1  4   4
1981 27  STL NL  103  444  376  65   115  27  4  8    48   12  5  61   45  .306 .401 .463 .864  142  174  9   2   0  5   6
1982 28  STL NL  160  694  579  79   173  33  6  7    94   19  11 100  67  .299 .397 .413 .810  127  239  10  2   1  12  19
1983 29  TOT NL  150  633  538  77   160  23  7  12   63   9   5  88   72  .297 .396 .433 .829  131  233  7   2   2  3   14
1983 29  STL NL  55   244  218  34   62   15  4  3    26   1   1  24   30  .284 .352 .431 .784  116  94   2   0   0  2   5
1983 29  NYM NL  95   389  320  43   98    8  3  9    37   8   4  64   42  .306 .424 .434 .858  140  139  5   2   2  1   9
1984 30  NYM NL  154  657  550  83   171  31  0  15   94   2   3  97   89  .311 .409 .449 .859  143  247  9   1   0  9   12
1985 31  NYM NL  158  682  593  87   183  34  4  10   91   3   3  77   59  .309 .384 .430 .814  129  255  14  2   0  10  15
1986 32  NYM NL  149  652  551  94   171  34  1  13   83   2   1  94   69  .310 .413 .446 .859  140  246  14  4   0  3   9
1987 33  NYM NL  154  676  587  87   170  28  2  18   89   0   2  81   104 .290 .377 .436 .813  120  256  15  4   0  4   8
1988 34  NYM NL  95   384  348  43   96   16  0  11   55   2   1  31   57  .276 .333 .417 .750  120  145  11  1   0  4   3
1989 35  NYM NL  75   244  215  18   50    8  0  4    19   0   3  27   39  .233 .324 .326 .649  91   70   4   2   0  0   3
1990 36  CLE AL  43   145  130  7    26    2  0  1    8    0   0  14   17  .200 .283 .238 .521  48   31   2   1   0  0   3
1991 37  CLE AL  139  557  478  69   141  24  2  12   74   2   0  72   81  .295 .390 .429 .818  126  205  11  4   0  3   6
1992 38  MON NL  112  416  366  45   96   18  2  8    48   1   2  47   59  .262 .349 .388 .737  110  142  9   2   0  1   3
1993 39  MON NL  97   322  286  29   73   13  0  5    31   0   1  34   52  .255 .336 .353 .690  82   101  7   1   1  0   1
1994 40  PIT NL  27   84   76   6    18    2  0  1    9    0   0  7    23  .237 .301 .303 .604  58   23   2   0   1  0   0
21 seasons      2463 9932 8576 1273 2510 483  64 188 1233 101 66 1230 1227 .293 .381 .430 .811  125 3685  190 39  12 75 140
Year Age Tm  Lg  G    PA   AB   R    H    2B  3B HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+ TB   GDP HBP SH SF IBB

Well, his OPS+ is three points lower, but it remains a solid 125. He doesn't reach any special milestones, though he does add 375 games and probably about three or four Wins Above Replacement to his career total. Would it be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame? Sadly, I think the answer is still no.

First of all, a good portion of Hernandez's value came from his defense, a skill which is still underappreciated by Hall voters today. Second, despite being the league's best player at his position during the late 1970's and early 1980's, he was named to only five All-Star teams (starting just once), making him appear less highly-regarded in retrospect. Players like Steve Garvey and Pete Rose, who were more charismatic but less valuable, were better at attracting the fan vote.

As I said above in my CliffsNotes career recap, Hernandez wasn't a prototypical first baseman, and that may be the biggest thing working against him. Garvey wasn't nearly the player Hernandez was, but he looked like a great first baseman, consistently hitting .300 with 20+ homers and 100+ RBI during his prime. As such, Garvey's entire run on the Hall of Fame ballot overlaps Hernandez's. Garvey lasted the full 15 years, and the lowest percentage of the vote he ever got (20.5) was nearly double Hernandez's best (10.8).

Keith Hernandez was a great player, one I believe belongs in Cooperstown. While this second wind probably wouldn't have gotten him there, it at least would've erased any sense that his career was taken from us too soon.