Thursday, March 31, 2011

30 Teams, 30 Ramones Songs

Last year I gave each team's upcoming season a theme song from the legendary Cheap Trick. This year each team is getting another theme song, only it'll be from another one of my favorite bands, the legendary Ramones. Let's dive into the punk rock archive.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks:
"Bop 'Til You Drop," Halfway to Sanity, 1987. Thanks to their hitter-friendly ballpark, Diamondback bats will be sending a lot of balls out of the field of play. Unfortunately, this team has little else going for it, so the hitters had better swing for the fences as much as possible.

Colorado Rockies: "It's Gonna Be Alright," Mondo Bizarro, 1992. The Rockies are rarely awful, even in years when they aren't contending. The inverse is true as well: when they contend they're never outstanding. If we know nothing else, we know the Rockies at the very least will be so-so.

Los Angeles Dodgers: "Love Kills," Animal Boy, 1986. Frank and Jamie McCourt surely loved each other at one time, if they no longer still do on some level. Unfortunately, all that's left of their beautiful romance is public feuding and a messy financial situation for the team they co-owned. Right now Dodger fans are more likely to quote the Ramones' view of love than Tennyson's.

San Diego Padres: "I Don't Care," Rocket to Russia, 1977. The Padres were in first place for most of 2010, and they still had trouble drawing spectators. Now Adrian Gonzalez is gone and the Padres are banking on the future again, so another apathetic baseball season appears to be in store for San Diego.

San Francisco Giants: "All the Way," End of the Century, 1980. After over a half-century in the City by the Bay, the Giants finally won a World Series last year. When you're on top the only thing you can strive for is to stay there, so the Giants are starting their course toward a hopeful repeat.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs:
"The Job That Ate My Brain," Mondo Bizarro, 1992. It was clear that managing the Cubs had taken a toll on Lou Piniella's mental acuity when he moved Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen last year. Mike Quade handled the job well at the end of the season, but can he last a full one without losing his marbles?

Cincinnati Reds: "This Ain't Havana," End of the Century, 1980. Just two years ago Aroldis Chapman was an obscure amateur pitching in Cuba; today he's a first-class talent occupying a spot on a Major League roster. By the end of this season the Reds' young hurler could be a full-blown superstar.

Houston Astros: "It's a Long Way Back," Road to Ruin, 1978. It was only six seasons ago the Astros won the NL pennant. Today they find themselves a threat to finish in last place with a bare minor league cupboard. They have quite the uphill battle to climb if they want to reach the heights of the last decade.

Milwaukee Brewers: "I Can't Make it on Time," End of the Century, 1980. The Brewers have inspired a lot of optimism with their beefed-up starting rotation, but with several key players starting the season on the DL (Zack Greinke chief among them) they might be too far behind in the race by the time their roster is at full strength.

Pittsburgh Pirates: "Got Alot to Say," ¡Adios Amigos!, 1995. John Russell was a man of few words during his three years as Pirate skipper. With the vocal Clint Hurdle now at the reins, the Pirate clubhouse is going to have a much different feel to it.

St. Louis Cardinals: "Don't Go," Pleasant Dreams, 1981. With a top-heavy roster and Adam Wainwright lost to Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals' season is pretty much a lost cause. In St. Louis they won't be talking about how the team is playing, they'll be talking about their chances of keeping Albert Pujols.

NL East

Atlanta Braves:
"I Remember You," Leave Home, 1977. "Hey, you look familiar! Aren't you that guy who used to be the Braves' third base coach?" "You bet I am, and after three and half years in Florida the Braves have brought me back as Bobby Cox's successor!"

Florida Marlins: "Garden of Serenity," Halfway to Sanity, 1987. For the last five years the Marlins have been the National League's worst draw. If you're looking for peace and quiet in southern Florida, you can always go to a Marlins game and enjoy the tranquility!

New York Mets: "We're a Happy Family," Rocket to Russia, 1977. With the Minaya administration no longer heading the Mets, the organization is starting to bear some resemblance to a functional unit of persons.

Philadelphia Phillies: "Come Back, Baby," Brain Drain, 1989. Philly fans never wanted Cliff Lee to be traded, and frankly, neither did he. That left only one remedy to the situation: the Phillies offered him a huge free agent deal and he accepted it! Baby.

Washington Nationals: "I Don't Wanna Go Down to the Basement," Ramones, 1976. The Nationals have settled into a customary last-place position over the last few years, but it won't stay that way if Mike Rizzo has something to say about it. The Nats' GM signed Jayson Werth to a massive seven-year deal, along with veterans like Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel. If all goes well, a losing culture will be nipped in the bud.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
"I Lost My Mind," Halfway to Sanity, 1987. Tony Reagins had to be frustrated after missing out on free agents like Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre. Even so, a sense of desperation is no excuse for taking on Vernon Wells' grossly-overpriced contract. Could it have been a mental health issue of some sort? If Reagins wants to be forgiven, he might do well to claim it was.

Oakland Athletics: "You Should Never Have Opened That Door," Leave Home, 1977. Moneyball was a good book, and in September we'll know whether it makes a good motion picture. Looking back though, it might've been better if Billy Beane had never given Michael Lewis a peek inside his organization. To this day he has a target on his back, and many people still judge the legitimacy of Sabermetrics by his successes and failures. Oh well. Despite creating a vehemently anti-Sabermetrics segment of baseball fandom, it's possible the book did more good than harm.

Seattle Mariners: "I Don't Wanna Walk Around With You," Ramones, 1976. Mariner pitching allowed the second-fewest walks last season while Mariner hitting drew the second-fewest walks. Safe to say, the base on balls ain't very popular over Seattle way.

Texas Rangers: "I Don't Want You," Road to Ruin, 1978. Michael Young may be the highest-paid Ranger, but with the addition of Adrian Beltre he's little more than a rich man's utility infielder. Relations between Young and the front office have been strained all offseason, and his level of happiness with the defending AL Champs will be a topic of constant discussion.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox:
"I Wanted Everything," Road to Ruin, 1978. Jerry Reinsdorf knows he's getting up in years, and he's sent a clear message to his organization: we're going for broke. The Sox's 2011 slogan, "All In," sums it up perfectly.

Cleveland Indians: "Don't Come Close," Road to Ruin, 1978. The Indians are clearly playing for the future, not the present. There are some promising youngsters in the organization, but the big club won't be anywhere in the vicinity of contention this season.

Detroit Tigers: "Babysitter," B-Side, 1977. What do you do when you have a talented but troubled young star? Hire a guy to keep an eye on him, of course! Former Major Leaguer Raul Gonzalez is being paid to supervise Miguel Cabrera, and for Cabrera's sake as both a person and a ballplayer, let's hope he can conquer his demons.

Kansas City Royals: "Something to Believe In," Animal Boy, 1986. The bad news is that it's going to be another lousy year in Kansas City; the good news is that the Royals' system is packed to the gills with top prospects. That hope for a brighter future should make it easier for fans to tolerate the current ineptitude.

Minnesota Twins: "In the Park," Subterranean Jungle, 1983. Target Field allowed the fewest homers in baseball last season. There'll be a lot of balls hit into play in 2011, but a sizable portion of the ones hit in Minnesota will remain within the grassy confines.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles:
"7-11," Pleasant Dreams, 1981. Let's be frank: The Orioles simply aren't good enough to contend in the AL East. On the bright side, they have a plethora of veteran trade chips for the deadline, which should allow them to stock up for the future. Yes sir, July 2011 will be a month to watch in Baltimore.

Boston Red Sox: "High Risk Insurance," End of the Century, 1980. The 2010 Red Sox were a talented team hit hard by injuries. When you have a budget like Boston's, that's a signal to add more depth. With Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford now in the fold, these Red Sox have to believe they can absorb losses of last season's magnitude.

New York Yankees: "Too Tough to Die," Too Tough to Die, 1984. Yes, there are questions about their pitching staff, but come on. These are the Yankees we're talking about. Your team will have to fight them to the end like always.

Tampa Bay Rays: "Strength to Endure," Mondo Bizarro, 1992. Most teams on a micro-budget wouldn't be able to withstand the losses of three starting position players and most of their bullpen. The Rays, however, with their smart GM and knack for minor league development, still look like a possible contender in baseball's toughest division. This is an organization to be admired.

Toronto Blue Jays: "Glad to See You Go," Leave Home, 1977. With Vernon Wells' cumbersome contract off the books, the Jays can start preparing for the future with even more flexibility than they'd imagined. Nothing personal against a nice guy like Wells, of course, but he was such a financial burden that any team would've dumped him in a heartbeat.

It's been a long winter, but spring is finally here, and the world's greatest game is ready to be played! Let's kick back and enjoy every thrill the 2011 season has in store!

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Second Wind: Keith Hernandez

Once again, I'm starting a series while several others are still up in the air. Unlike Profiling the World Series Winners and Home For October though, this one doesn't require a certain number of posts to be complete; I can do as many or as few as I wish. Works out well, doesn't it?

So what's this new series? Well, every one of us can probably think of a few players whose careers would be viewed differently if they'd had more longevity. Perhaps it was an injury, perhaps it was an off-field issue, perhaps it was a simple loss of passion for the game, but these players hung it up when under different circumstances they might've had some good years ahead of them. It got me thinking...what if some of these guys had (drumroll please) a second wind? What if, just when their playing days appeared all but over, they experienced a revival? How exciting! How grand! There had to be someone out there who could simulate such scenarios! Well, hey! I came up with the idea! Why not me?

Just so there's no confusion, for this exercise we'll be adding seasons to these players' existing careers, not changing any seasons they actually played. Sure, it'd be nice to go back and improve on a few bad years, but we're presuming here that these guys bounced back from a downturn. Obviously it's impossible to know for certain how these hypothetical situations would've played out, but we can make reasonable guesses. Since this is all for fun anyway, we're allowed to take a little creative license if needed.

The first player we'll look at is the guy whose career gave me the idea for this project: Keith Hernandez. For anyone unfamiliar with Keith Hernandez's career, here's the CliffsNotes version:

Hernandez came up with the Cardinals in 1974, and by 1976 he was firmly established as their starting first baseman. He wasn't a prototypical first-sacker, as he relied more on doubles than home runs, but he knew how to take a walk and was one of the best defensive players ever at the position. He tied for National League MVP in 1979 and helped the Cards to a World Series title in 1982. In 1983 he was traded to the Mets, where he continued to be among the most durable and consistent players in the game. He helped them win the 1986 World Series, and the next year he was named the first team captain in franchise history. In 1988 injuries started catching up with him, as he played fewer than 100 games that year and the next. After the 1989 season he signed a two-year deal with the Indians which proved disastrous; he only played 43 games for Cleveland before a calf injury sidelined him for the season, and he didn't even make it to Spring Training next year due to a herniated disc. At 37 years old his career was through.

His final statistics were as follows:

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos
1974 20 STL NL 14 41 34 3 10 1 2 0 2 0 0 7 8 .294 .415 .441 .856 140 15 1 0 0 0 0 /3
1975 21 STL NL 64 207 188 20 47 8 2 3 20 0 1 17 26 .250 .309 .362 .671 83 68 5 0 0 2 2 3
1976 22 STL NL 129 428 374 54 108 21 5 7 46 4 2 49 53 .289 .376 .428 .803 127 160 8 3 2 0 5 *3
1977 23 STL NL 161 645 560 90 163 41 4 15 91 7 7 79 88 .291 .379 .459 .837 125 257 17 1 3 2 11 *3
1978 24 STL NL 159 633 542 90 138 32 4 11 64 13 5 82 68 .255 .351 .389 .741 108 211 12 2 1 6 11 *3
1979 25 STL NL 161 698 610 116 210 48 11 11 105 11 6 80 78 .344 .417 .513 .930 151 313 9 1 0 7 5 *3
1980 26 STL NL 159 690 595 111 191 39 8 16 99 14 8 86 73 .321 .408 .494 .902 147 294 14 4 1 4 4 *3
1981 27 STL NL 103 444 376 65 115 27 4 8 48 12 5 61 45 .306 .401 .463 .864 142 174 9 2 0 5 6 *3/7
1982 28 STL NL 160 694 579 79 173 33 6 7 94 19 11 100 67 .299 .397 .413 .810 127 239 10 2 1 12 19 *3/79
1983 29 TOT NL 150 633 538 77 160 23 7 12 63 9 5 88 72 .297 .396 .433 .829 131 233 7 2 2 3 14 *3
1983 29 STL NL 55 244 218 34 62 15 4 3 26 1 1 24 30 .284 .352 .431 .784 116 94 2 0 0 2 5 3
1983 29 NYM NL 95 389 320 43 98 8 3 9 37 8 4 64 42 .306 .424 .434 .858 140 139 5 2 2 1 9 3
1984 30 NYM NL 154 657 550 83 171 31 0 15 94 2 3 97 89 .311 .409 .449 .859 143 247 9 1 0 9 12 *3
1985 31 NYM NL 158 682 593 87 183 34 4 10 91 3 3 77 59 .309 .384 .430 .814 129 255 14 2 0 10 15 *3
1986 32 NYM NL 149 652 551 94 171 34 1 13 83 2 1 94 69 .310 .413 .446 .859 140 246 14 4 0 3 9 *3
1987 33 NYM NL 154 676 587 87 170 28 2 18 89 0 2 81 104 .290 .377 .436 .813 120 256 15 4 0 4 8 *3
1988 34 NYM NL 95 384 348 43 96 16 0 11 55 2 1 31 57 .276 .333 .417 .750 120 145 11 1 0 4 3 3
1989 35 NYM NL 75 244 215 18 50 8 0 4 19 0 3 27 39 .233 .324 .326 .649 91 70 4 2 0 0 3 3
1990 36 CLE AL 43 145 130 7 26 2 0 1 8 0 0 14 17 .200 .283 .238 .521 48 31 2 1 0 0 3 3
17 Seasons 2088 8553 7370 1124 2182 426 60 162 1071 98 63 1070 1012 .296 .384 .436 .821 128 3214 161 32 10 71 130
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/12/2011.

Now, let's just suppose this herniated disc never happens. Let's presume Hernandez rehabs as best he can from the calf injury, and that by the time Spring Training 1991 rolls around he's looking like an older-but-still-effective version of the guy who was the National League's best first baseman for almost a decade. While he's lost a step in the field, he's still adept at scoops and positioning himself smartly, making his defensive contributions a positive. It's no surprise when Hernandez turns in a nice little comeback season:

G    PA   AB   R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
139  557  478  69  141  24   2  12   74   2   0  72  81  .295 .390 .429 .818  126  205   11   4   0   3   6

All in all, the Indians end up happy their investment wasn't a total loss. However, Cleveland has no plans to resign Hernandez, as they're in the middle of a youth movement. New Indians GM John Hart has a system full of young players who need to develop, and with minor league prospect Reggie Jefferson expected to take over at first, the veteran Hernandez doesn't fit into their plans. Having shown he can still play, Mex hits the free agent market in hopes of catching on somewhere.

That's where the Montreal Expos enter the picture. They've just traded away first baseman Andres Galarraga, and manager Tom Runnells is talking about moving third baseman Tim Wallach across the diamond to replace him (a proposition Wallach isn't too happy about). To solve their dilemma, the Expos sign Hernandez to a one-year deal and allow Wallach to keep his regular post. Now 38, Hernandez is starting to look less like a star, but he's still better than alternatives like Greg Colbrunn and Archi Cianfrocco. During the 1992 season Hernandez proves he can still hit a little, but his defense is now average at best:

G    PA   AB   R   H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
112  416  366  45  96  18   2   8   48   1   2  47  59  .262 .349  .388  .737  110  142   9    2   0   1   3

This season isn't great, but it's certainly respectable for a 38-year-old. Because the Expos still have questionable depth at first base, Hernandez is invited back for a second season in Montreal. However, 1993 is when his power really starts to drop off, and he finds himself unable to play as frequently as he used to. He usually only starts against right-handers, and he's little more than a veteran placeholder at this point:

G   PA   AB   R   H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
97  322  286  29  73  13   0   5   31   0   1  34  52  .255 .336 .353 .690   82  101   7    1   1   0   1

By now it's clear that Keith Hernandez is nearing the end of the line. With lefty-swinging first baseman Cliff Floyd waiting in the wings, the Expos no longer have any need for his services. Still hoping to make one last go at it, Hernandez catches on with the flaccid Pirates for 1994, where his decline becomes even more pronounced:

G   PA  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+  TB  GDP  HBP SH  SF  IBB
27  84  76   6  18   2   0   1   9    0   0   7  23  .237 .301 .303 .604   58   23   2    0   1   0   0

Used mainly as a pinch-hitter and an occasional starter against righties, Hernandez offers little production before he's released in late May. He doesn't resurface in 1995, making him yet another player for whom the strike signifies the end of an era.

After this second wind, what does Keith Hernandez's career now look like?
Year Age Tm  Lg  G    PA   AB   R    H    2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+ TB   GDP HBP SH SF IBB
1974 20  STL NL  14   41   34   3    10    1  2  0    2    0   0  7    8   .294 .415 .441 .856  140  15   1   0   0  0   0
1975 21  STL NL  64   207  188  20   47    8  2  3    20   0   1  17   26  .250 .309 .362 .671  83   68   5   0   0  2   2
1976 22  STL NL  129  428  374  54   108  21  5  7    46   4   2  49   53  .289 .376 .428 .803  127  160  8   3   2  0   5
1977 23  STL NL  161  645  560  90   163  41  4  15   91   7   7  79   88  .291 .379 .459 .837  125  257  17  1   3  2   11
1978 24  STL NL  159  633  542  90   138  32  4  11   64   13  5  82   68  .255 .351 .389 .741  108  211  12  2   1  6   11
1979 25  STL NL  161  698  610  116  210  48  11 11   105  11  6  80   78  .344 .417 .513 .930  151  313  9   1   0  7   5
1980 26  STL NL  159  690  595  111  191  39  8  16   99   14  8  86   73  .321 .408 .494 .902  147  294  14  4   1  4   4
1981 27  STL NL  103  444  376  65   115  27  4  8    48   12  5  61   45  .306 .401 .463 .864  142  174  9   2   0  5   6
1982 28  STL NL  160  694  579  79   173  33  6  7    94   19  11 100  67  .299 .397 .413 .810  127  239  10  2   1  12  19
1983 29  TOT NL  150  633  538  77   160  23  7  12   63   9   5  88   72  .297 .396 .433 .829  131  233  7   2   2  3   14
1983 29  STL NL  55   244  218  34   62   15  4  3    26   1   1  24   30  .284 .352 .431 .784  116  94   2   0   0  2   5
1983 29  NYM NL  95   389  320  43   98    8  3  9    37   8   4  64   42  .306 .424 .434 .858  140  139  5   2   2  1   9
1984 30  NYM NL  154  657  550  83   171  31  0  15   94   2   3  97   89  .311 .409 .449 .859  143  247  9   1   0  9   12
1985 31  NYM NL  158  682  593  87   183  34  4  10   91   3   3  77   59  .309 .384 .430 .814  129  255  14  2   0  10  15
1986 32  NYM NL  149  652  551  94   171  34  1  13   83   2   1  94   69  .310 .413 .446 .859  140  246  14  4   0  3   9
1987 33  NYM NL  154  676  587  87   170  28  2  18   89   0   2  81   104 .290 .377 .436 .813  120  256  15  4   0  4   8
1988 34  NYM NL  95   384  348  43   96   16  0  11   55   2   1  31   57  .276 .333 .417 .750  120  145  11  1   0  4   3
1989 35  NYM NL  75   244  215  18   50    8  0  4    19   0   3  27   39  .233 .324 .326 .649  91   70   4   2   0  0   3
1990 36  CLE AL  43   145  130  7    26    2  0  1    8    0   0  14   17  .200 .283 .238 .521  48   31   2   1   0  0   3
1991 37  CLE AL  139  557  478  69   141  24  2  12   74   2   0  72   81  .295 .390 .429 .818  126  205  11  4   0  3   6
1992 38  MON NL  112  416  366  45   96   18  2  8    48   1   2  47   59  .262 .349 .388 .737  110  142  9   2   0  1   3
1993 39  MON NL  97   322  286  29   73   13  0  5    31   0   1  34   52  .255 .336 .353 .690  82   101  7   1   1  0   1
1994 40  PIT NL  27   84   76   6    18    2  0  1    9    0   0  7    23  .237 .301 .303 .604  58   23   2   0   1  0   0
21 seasons      2463 9932 8576 1273 2510 483  64 188 1233 101 66 1230 1227 .293 .381 .430 .811  125 3685  190 39  12 75 140
Year Age Tm  Lg  G    PA   AB   R    H    2B  3B HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  OPS+ TB   GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Well, his OPS+ is three points lower, but it remains a solid 125. He doesn't reach any special milestones, though he does add 375 games and probably about three or four Wins Above Replacement to his career total. Would it be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame? Sadly, I think the answer is still no.

First of all, a good portion of Hernandez's value came from his defense, a skill which is still underappreciated by Hall voters today. Second, despite being the league's best player at his position during the late 1970's and early 1980's, he was named to only five All-Star teams (starting just once), making him appear less highly-regarded in retrospect. Players like Steve Garvey and Pete Rose, who were more charismatic but less valuable, were better at attracting the fan vote.

As I said above in my CliffsNotes career recap, Hernandez wasn't a prototypical first baseman, and that may be the biggest thing working against him. Garvey wasn't nearly the player Hernandez was, but he looked like a great first baseman, consistently hitting .300 with 20+ homers and 100+ RBI during his prime. As such, Garvey's entire run on the Hall of Fame ballot overlaps Hernandez's. Garvey lasted the full 15 years, and the lowest percentage of the vote he ever got (20.5) was nearly double Hernandez's best (10.8).

Keith Hernandez was a great player, one I believe belongs in Cooperstown. While this second wind probably wouldn't have gotten him there, it at least would've erased any sense that his career was taken from us too soon.