The game isn't played on paper. This we all know. But that doesn't stop us from asking whether the results we see were the ones we should have expected.
One concept that has gained popularity over the years in advanced sports analysis is the concept of Pythagorean Won-Lost Record. For those unfamiliar, Pythagorean Won-Lost Record uses a formula to determine the number of wins and losses a team should be expected to have based on the number of runs scored versus runs allowed. Few teams play precisely to their Pythagorean expectations, but most fall within three games of it. There are always, however, teams that wildly exceed or fall short of their expectations, and in a pennant race, those games can be the difference between a trip to the World Series and an early winter break.
Before the divisional play era, only one team from each league made it to the postseason. Based on Pythagorean W-L, how often did we see the World Series matchup that should've been expected? The chart below shows who won the Pythagorean pennant each year during that era. Teams marked with
red are different than the actual winners, and boxes marked with
blue are ones where tiebreakers would've had to be played to determine the winner.
| NL | AL |
|---|
| 1903 | Pittsburg Pirates (86-54) | Boston Americans (90-48) |
| 1905 | New York Giants (105-48) | Chicago White Sox (97-55) |
| 1906 | Chicago Cubs (115-37) | Cleveland Naps (98-55) |
| 1907 | Chicago Cubs (102-50) | Detroit Tigers (93-57) |
| 1908 | New York Giants (101-53) | Cleveland Naps (92-62) |
| 1909 | Chicago Cubs (109-44) | Philadelphia Athletics (102-51) |
| 1910 | Chicago Cubs (101-53) | Philadelphia Athletics (103-47) |
| 1911 | New York Giants (99-54) | Philadelphia Athletics (99-52) |
| 1912 | New York Giants (100-51) | Boston Red Sox (102-50) |
| 1913 | New York Giants (95-57) | Philadelphia Athletics (97-56) |
| 1914 | Boston Braves (89-64) | Philadelphia Athletics (99-53) |
| 1915 | Philadelphia Phillies (92-60) | Chicago White Sox (100-54) |
| 1916 | Brooklyn Robins (92-62) | Chicago White Sox (90-64) |
| 1917 | New York Giants (100-54) | Chicago White Sox (101-53) |
| 1918 | Chicago Cubs (83-46) | Boston Red Sox (76-50) |
| 1919 | Cincinnati Reds (92-48) | Chicago White Sox (84-56) |
| 1920 | Brooklyn Robins/New York Giants (93-61) | Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees (97-57) |
| 1921 | New York Giants (95-58) | New York Yankees (96-57) |
| 1922 | New York Giants (95-59) | St. Louis Browns (98-56) |
| 1923 | New York Giants (92-61) | New York Yankees (95-57) |
| 1924 | New York Giants (96-57) | Washington Senators (92-62) |
| 1925 | Pittsburgh Pirates (93-60) | Washington Senators (90-61) |
| 1926 | St. Louis Cardinals (90-64) | Cleveland Indians (90-64) |
| 1927 | Pittsburgh Pirates (92-62) | New York Yankees (109-45) |
| 1928 | St. Louis Cardinals (94-60) | Philadelphia Athletics (97-56) |
| 1929 | Chicago Cubs (94-58) | Philadelphia Athletics (100-50) |
| 1930 | St. Louis Cardinals (94-60) | Washington Senators (95-59) |
| 1931 | St. Louis Cardinals (97-57) | New York Yankees (100-53) |
| 1932 | Chicago Cubs (86-68) | New York Yankees (99-55) |
| 1933 | Chicago Cubs/New York Giants | Washington Senators (93-59) |
| 1934 | New York Giants (95-58) | Detroit Tigers (98-56) |
| 1935 | Chicago Cubs (101-53) | Detroit Tigers (97-54) |
| 1936 | Chicago Cubs (93-61) | New York Yankees (102-51) |
| 1937 | Chicago Cubs/New York Giants | New York Yankees (103-51) |
| 1938 | Chicago Cubs (88-64) | New York Yankees (97-55) |
| 1939 | Cincinnati Reds (95-59) | New York Yankees (111-40) |
| 1940 | Cincinnati Reds (96-57) | Detroit Tigers (92-62) |
| 1941 | Brooklyn Dodgers (99-55) | New York Yankees (96-58) |
| 1942 | St. Louis Cardinals (107-47) | New York Yankees (107-47) |
| 1943 | St. Louis Cardinals (101-53) | New York Yankees (92-62) |
| 1944 | St. Louis Cardinals (107-47) | St. Louis Browns (88-66) |
| 1945 | Chicago Cubs (99-55) | NYY/DET/WSH/SLB |
| 1946 | St. Louis Cardinals (97-59) | Boston Red Sox (97-57) |
| 1947 | St. Louis Cardinals (91-63) | New York Yankees (100-54) |
| 1948 | Boston Braves (93-60) | Cleveland Indians (104-51) |
| 1949 | Brooklyn Dodgers (98-56) | Boston Red Sox (97-57) |
| 1950 | Brooklyn Dodgers (88-66) | New York Yankees (96-58) |
| 1951 | Brooklyn Dodgers (96-61) | New York Yankees (94-60) |
| 1952 | Brooklyn Dodgers (94-59) | New York Yankees (95-59) |
| 1953 | Brooklyn Dodgers (99-55) | New York Yankees (101-50) |
| 1954 | New York Giants (97-57) | Cleveland Indians (104-50) |
| 1955 | Brooklyn Dodgers (95-58) | New York Yankees (97-57) |
| 1956 | Milwaukee Braves (92-62) | New York Yankees (98-56) |
| 1957 | Milwaukee Braves (93-61) | New York Yankees (98-56) |
| 1958 | Milwaukee Braves (92-62) | New York Yankees (96-58) |
| 1959 | Milwaukee Braves (89-67) | Cleveland Indians (87-67) |
| 1960 | Pittsburgh Pirates (92-62) | Chicago White Sox (90-64) |
| 1961 | San Francisco Giants (89-65) | New York Yankees (103-59) |
| 1962 | San Francisco Giants (100-65) | New York Yankees (94-68) |
| 1963 | St. Louis Cardinals (94-68) | New York Yankees (100-61) |
| 1964 | Cincinnati Reds (92-70) | Chicago White Sox (99-63) |
| 1965 | Cincinnati Reds (93-69) | Minnesota Twins (100-62) |
| 1966 | Los Angeles Dodgers (97-65) | Baltimore Orioles (96-64) |
| 1967 | St. Louis Cardinals (97-64) | Boston Red Sox (93-69) |
| 1968 | St. Louis Cardinals (96-66) | Detroit Tigers (103-59) |
It's heartening to see that most years the "correct" team wins.There are some long stretches here of black ink.
It's interesting to note that based on this data, several historical teams could be considered overrated or underrated. Connie Mack's Athletics from the "$100,000 Infield" era should've won five of six pennants, rather than the mere four of five they actually won. Their American League successors should've been the Chicago White Sox, if only they hadn't underperformed. The Red Sox of that era would've been the exceptions to two dynasties, rather than one of their own.
Cleveland could've had an additional four American League pennants in their history had their on-field play matched the on-paper expectations. Napoleon Lajoie wouldn't have gone down in history as one of the best players never to reach the postseason, with two World Series appearances during his time leading the "Naps."
The powerhouse Athletics from 1929-31 would've won only one pennant during that span, but they would've had an additional one in 1928, perhaps giving Ty Cobb a World Series title in his final season.
The National League also sees some teams look more dynastic than reality proved them to be. The Cubs might've potentially won an astounding six pennants in seven years between 1932 and 1938. Those Cubs always came up short in the World Series, but history should remember them much more favorably than it does.
The Brooklyn Dodgers stole the 1947 pennant from their rivals in St. Louis in Jackie Robinson's debut season, but it appears that they, not the Yankees, should've won five straight pennants between 1949 and 1953. While the Red Sox should've captured the 1949 AL flag, we would've had a Yankees-Dodgers matchup four straight seasons to start the 1950s.
And how about those Milwaukee Braves? That immensely talented club should've won four in a row during the 1956-59 seasons, not just the two they did.
The Koufax-era Dodgers also appear to be overrated, winning pennants only in 1955, when he was a benchwarming rookie, and 1966, when he pitched his arm off in his final season. The Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants are the great forgotten teams of the '60s.
